Investors are eagerly awaiting the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETF. Regardless of high approval chances, there is always the possibility of rejection. Therefore, marking the potential decision dates on your calendar could prove beneficial.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Application
BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin ETF, known as iShares Bitcoin Trust, has injected much-needed excitement into the market. Many market experts are giving high approval odds to BlackRock’s ETF. Interestingly, while BlackRock boasts a significant approval ratio of 575:1, the SEC’s track record of rejecting spot Bitcoin ETFs is equally clear, with 33 rejections so far.
However, BlackRock’s close ties with U.S. regulators and Democratic politicians give room for an optimistic view on approval chances. As mentioned in K33 Research’s latest market analysis, BlackRock wouldn’t likely invest time and resources without a reasonable chance of success.
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Timeline
An important thing to note is that the SEC’s deadlines and decision regarding the iShares Bitcoin Trust depend on when the application is published for comments in the Federal Register. Since this has not officially occurred yet, there are only approximate estimates so far.
Nevertheless, K33 Research has prepared a rough timeline based on the SEC’s deadlines. In theory, a decision can be made within four timeframes, and the decision process follows a scheme of fixed decision dates.
Following the publication of the application in the Register, the SEC has an initial period of 45 days to approve, reject, or extend the review of the ETF. If we assume that the application was published on June 29th, the SEC’s first deadline would be August 12th, 2023. Similar milestones occur 45 days later, 90 days later, and 60 days after that.
- August 12: 45-day extension
- September 26: 90-day extension
- December 25: 60-day extension
- Final deadline: February 23, 2024.
K33 Research emphasizes that the SEC must announce a decision no later than 240 days later, meaning the SEC has until February 23, 2024, to make a decision. But remember, the SEC can also make a decision before these deadlines.
