A new Bitcoin price model suggests that Bitcoin is testing its holders with a “mid-cycle slump” before starting a bull run in late 2024. According to the creator of the model, popular analyst CryptoCon, the “November 28 Cycles Theory” predicts that the BTC price will reach its all-time high in 2025.
Countdown for the Bull Run
Amidst the debates about the nature of the current four-year Bitcoin price cycle, CryptoCon believes that the behavior of the BTC/USD pair can be simpler than many people imagine. Explaining the “November 28” chart, CryptoCon identifies this date as a significant pivot point within the year, with a three-week period on both sides:
“Using four-year time cycles in my theory produces the exact behavior of Bitcoin over time since its inception. The cycles center around the first halving date on November 28.”
“The Bitcoin price action started at the first bottom point on October 8, 2010. This is where the cycle curves peak every four years. Peaks and bottoms come at suitable times on the curve 21 days after November 28. Peaks are on the uptrend, bottoms at the peak.”
The chart defines November 28 as the date when Bitcoin initiates a “bull run” every four years. The latest one occurred in 2020, with the BTC/USD pair surpassing its previous all-time high (ATH) and setting a new record of $69,000 one year later. Therefore, the next focal point is November 2024. By that time, the BTC price movement will spend its time in a “mid-cycle slump.”
“After hitting the bottom, Bitcoin makes an early first cycle move (orange) and enters the mid-cycle area. This is the longest part of the cycle where Bitcoin spends time around the median price (half of the previous ATH) until the curve hits the bottom.”
CryptoCon also added that Bitcoin saw its early peak, referring to the local peak of $31,800 in July.
Bitcoin Bull Market Deception
Opinions about where the BTC price will go until the 2024 halving event differ. Some investors argue that Bitcoin holders will only see modest gains before the event scheduled for April next year.
Filbfilb, the co-founder of DecenTrader, gave a target of $46,000 for the halving and highlighted the $35,000 level by the end of the year in an interview this week. Meanwhile, CryptoCon summarized the 2023 BTC price behavior as a “bull market deception” in the latest X newsletter published on September 5:
“This makes it seem like the bull market began with many signals triggered, but then at some point the price cannot continue. This is the most convincing example we have seen so far. Personally, I still believe there is some time left for this and I patiently await its completion.”
