A recent study by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) reveals that the campaign promises of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could increase the national debt of the United States by trillions of dollars. The analysis highlights the significant financial implications of their proposed policies on the overall economy.
CRFB’s Predictions
According to CRFB, Trump’s tax and spending plans could raise the debt by approximately $7.5 trillion over the next decade, while Harris’s proposals might add $3.5 trillion in the same timeframe. In total, these campaign promises are expected to contribute nearly $11 trillion to the national debt.
The CRFB emphasized that both candidates are projected to lead to an increase in debt and deficits beyond current legal projections. The study details the impacts of Trump’s comprehensive tax cuts and increased defense spending alongside Harris’s proposed expansions of child tax credits and healthcare expenditures.
Specific Initiatives
Harris’s plans prominently feature significant expansions of child tax credits, increased support for housing and healthcare, enhanced border security, and education spending. For Trump, initiatives such as extending tax cuts, new corporate tax reductions, increased defense spending, and stricter immigration policies will contribute to debt growth.
CRFB noted that a high and rising national debt could slow economic growth, raise interest rates, and weaken national security. However, none of the leading candidates in the 2024 presidential election have presented a plan to address this escalating debt burden.
CRFB utilized a wide range of potential outcomes based on the candidates’ campaign proposals. Trump’s debt increase is anticipated to range between $1.45 trillion and $15.15 trillion, whereas Harris’s is expected to fall between $0 and $8.1 trillion.
Both candidates have suggested measures to mitigate their impacts on debt. Harris proposes raising corporate taxes and taxes on high-income households to offset the costs of her plans, while Trump aims to balance debt growth through new tariffs and spending cuts. If these plans are implemented, a significant increase in the national debt is projected, with potential implications for economic and financial stability.
