Currently, cryptocurrency investors believe that there will be further increase in the markets due to various factors. Technical analysis also indicates that closures above $35,000 target $40,000 for Ripple. However, there is a problem and Turkish on-chain expert anlcnc1 has warned his followers about it.
Cryptocurrencies Could Decline
We are considering the opinions of various experts from around the world and recently I had not come across such a perspective. Globally, experts’ expectations (excluding fanatical bears like Capo) are in line with the general market sentiment. If you look closely these days, popular experts are announcing higher targets for further increases.
However, a popular Turkish analyst followed in the on-chain field is saying the opposite today. Anıl (anlcnc1), the user, announced in his evaluation post shared via account X that he revised his $40,000 target while maintaining the $35,000 price. According to him, due to the timing of open positions and the ongoing profit-taking, we may experience a new downward wave towards $30,000.
Open Positions and Decline
As you may remember, we have been talking about how institutional demand has pushed the price up on Deribit and other platforms. The story began with the news of fake ETH approval, as Anıl also mentioned. After the announcement that the BlackRock application was approved, the price rose to $30,000 and millions of dollars worth of positions were opened on Deribit.
Then, as we announced again at the last minute, this news was denied and the CEO of BlackRock had an interview with the journalist who published the evening news. He mentioned that interest in cryptocurrencies will increase and so on. Then, the price quickly exceeded $30,000 with this motivation. Afterwards, we saw that the regions of $31,000 and $31,800, which were considered difficult to break, suddenly collapsed.
Anıl (anlcnc1) says the following about this:
“On Deribit, positions were opened again in the sudden 30-36K movement of Bitcoin and the price followed upwards. So far, there have been no noticeable position closures.
In the image below, we see a red candle coming in the number 2 area, in the price range of $34,800-$33,300, positions are closing. While the price moves $1,000 up and down, positions are still closing. In the image below, the number 3 area; positions are opened and they follow the price increase. In the image below, the number 4 area; while the price fluctuates by $300, positions are visibly closing. I say they continue to close positions while the price stabilizes.”
“In the image below, we see that while the price continues to rise, positions on Deribit visibly close and if I’m not mistaken, there is no connection with the sudden short squeeze movements in the price, meaning it does not seem like positions are closing due to the sudden increase in price. Also, I couldn’t find any data that I can say are shorts, it seems like only longs are taking profits. Especially after yesterday’s movement, I noticed that open positions were closing in a series.”
I haven’t seen a similar perspective shared in a similar evaluation and Anıl’s point of view indicates that downward volatility is approaching. If we see long-term closures below $34,300, there could be similar rapid declines towards the previously highlighted $31,800 level. As always, the price will follow the news and if we see a decline, we will likely see a negative news that supports it.
There are many potential negative news sources:
- Possible new crypto lawsuits by the SEC
- Expected Binance lawsuit by the US Department of Justice
- More leaks of confessions related to Genesis and DCG lawsuits (1 witness)
- Withdrawal of applications by several companies that applied for ETFs
- Excessively hawkish statements by Fed members this week that will undermine the expectation of a 100bp rate cut for next year.
There are many more possibilities and we will all see what happens.
