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The cryptocurrency derivatives market showcases a cautious stance this week as it approaches the upcoming FOMC minutes and October’s PCE inflation data. Analysts warn that these data points will provide crucial signals regarding the trajectory of inflation and the possibility of interest rate cuts in December. Changes in option pricing for Ethereum 
$2,545 and Bitcoin 
$104,461 reveal that traders are adopting a more prudent approach towards downside risks.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Show Cautious Trends
A general atmosphere of caution dominates the cryptocurrency market. Instead of advancing towards the 100,000-dollar target, Bitcoin has retreated below the 93,000-dollar level. Analyst Valentin Fournier stated, “The market is in a consolidation phase. We expect Bitcoin to find support around 95,000 dollars and then begin to rally.”
Meanwhile, the price of Ethereum has dropped over 5% in the last 24 hours, settling around 3,300 dollars. According to Deribit data, the put-call ratio for Ethereum options has risen to 0.74 for the end of November. This trend indicates that traders are becoming more sensitive to potential downside risks.
Additionally, QCP Capital has warned of increased downside risks, citing the lack of strong market catalysts by year-end.
Critical Economic Data May Affect Crypto Markets
The FOMC minutes published today will provide new insights into the Fed’s interest rate policy and economic outlook. The Core PCE inflation data set to be released on Wednesday is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.3%. CME’s FedWatch tool indicates a 59.4% probability of an interest rate cut in December, while the likelihood of rates remaining steady stands at 40.6%.
Analyst Fournier noted, “An inflation figure that comes in below expectations could strengthen the likelihood of a rate cut and support Bitcoin’s momentum.” Given these developments, it is crucial to acknowledge that the cryptocurrency market is entering a critical week for short-term directional clarity.
