The first day of 2025 felt just like yesterday, yet we are already entering the third quarter of the year. The agenda has been quite packed. We’ve witnessed dizzying developments with tariffs alongside many historic occurrences. In just the past few days, significant events have unfolded. For instance, Grayscale’s cryptocurrency basket ETF approval by the SEC is now under review again. What does the third quarter hold for the cryptocurrency markets?
Historical Performance in Crypto
To begin with, it’s comforting that the “sell and go on vacation” phenomenon did not materialize in May. However, there is a noticeable decline in trading volume in cryptocurrencies. On the bright side, despite this decline, BTC managed to find buyers above $109,500. Moreover, a trade agreement with Vietnam was announced today. Tomorrow, an announcement from India is expected, followed by deals with the EU and others.
Lark Davis, assessing the historical performance for the third quarter, compared previous years to the present, suggesting that BTC could reach $140,000. This could pave the way for impressive rallies in altcoins as well.
“After each Bitcoin 
$78,302 block reward halving, this trend continues. Historically, BTC sees an average July increase of 15.48% and August 36.51%.”
“This equates to a total increase of ~57% in just 62 days. A 30% motion from here could take Bitcoin to $140,000.”
While history may not always repeat itself, it often rhymes. A $140,000 Bitcoin target seems feasible according to historical data, especially if July sees tariff-related uncertainties resolved and encouragement from Fed rate cut announcements.
Short-Term Predictions and ETHBTC
Roman Trading, accurately predicting recent declines, consistently described this week as calm due to the holiday season. The analyst in today’s assessment reiterated that due to low volume, we won’t see significant moves in either direction this week.
“At the start of this week, I suggested approaching any BTC moves cautiously. It’s a holiday week in America, with over 50% of the workforce on vacation. This applies to both upward and downward moves. A clearer picture will emerge next week.”
The US markets recently closed, presenting Trump with a prime opportunity to challenge nations struggling with tariff negotiations. Tomorrow, US markets are half-day and closed on Friday. He will speak at the Americans250 event early morning and could issue challenges there or on social media. Employment data from the US tomorrow may induce volatility, contradicting Roman Trading’s anticipation.
ETHBTC is crucial for altcoin investors, with ETHUSDT surpassing $2,600 again, and ETHBTC reclaiming the 0.02360 base. If it can cross the 0.025846 and 0.02718 range, we might see gains of up to 20% in altcoins. It’s refreshing to see movement here again.
