Bitcoin is struggling to hold above $68,000 and appears poised to lose this key support level as this report is written. Meanwhile, Ethereum has slipped back below the $2,100 threshold after a brief rally. Yesterday’s FOMO signal from market analytics firm Santiment proved accurate, rewarding those who took early short positions. With the cryptocurrency market on edge, investors are asking: what’s next for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) as geopolitical risks intensify?
Heightened tensions linked to US-Iran standoff depress crypto sentiment
After former President Donald Trump declared, “We will wipe out Iran’s entire civilization,” direct communication between the US and Iran broke down. Although Iran continues dialogue through ceasefire mediators, all eyes are on whether Trump will further delay an ultimatum—a move that could become increasingly untenable. With only hours remaining until the decision deadline at 3:00 a.m., markets are bracing for clarity on a potential ceasefire. Signs point to no ceasefire in sight, which could result in the destruction of key Iranian infrastructure. In turn, Iran has threatened to retaliate by plunging Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries into darkness if attacked.
Markets monitor oil as an indicator of global risk
Gulf states, who have paid trillions to the US, are at risk of being drawn into a conflict that NATO itself has been wary of entering, particularly in the face of Iranian aggression. The global financial community is now counting down to a major turning point, expecting to learn the outcome before the final minutes tick away. To gauge the intensity of the standoff, investors have been watching oil prices closely: following Trump’s remarks, crude hit $112 per barrel before settling back to $110—still above the psychologically “safe” level of $107.
The escalating crisis is such that, as some observers note, “Even Poppe expects a downturn now”—referring to the well-known analyst Michael van de Poppe. In his latest chart analysis, he suggests the probability of further conflict is so high that marked support zones could be tested for a market bottom.
“A decline is likely. Why? Because the price was rejected again at $70,000, and higher lows are forming. The most recent higher low is at $66,500, indicating price compression and market indecision. Volumes are dropping, but during a breakout—regardless of direction—we’ll see both volume and volatility spike.
The biggest question is whether there will be a Middle East ceasefire. Technically, the trend is downward, making a drop more likely. As I’ve noted before, clearing stop-losses and absorbing liquidity at these lows could spark a significant reversal.”
Ethereum, meanwhile, continues to struggle around the $2,100 resistance zone. Its immediate support lies near $2,020—the midpoint of its channel. Should that level fail, further declines to $1,924 and $1,833 become plausible. Given prevailing market pressures and Bitcoin’s vulnerability, Ethereum investors—already battered—have few strong support levels to rely on. In a steep downturn, wicks could reach as low as $1,500. Notably, yesterday’s $120 million ETF inflow is offering some relief, helping to counterbalance last week’s outflows.
Solana faces increased risk following protocol exploit
Last week’s attack on the Drift Protocol left Solana (SOL) vulnerable, with $78 million in assets now at risk. The network, already under strain, is contending with total protocol losses exceeding $280 million. In recent ETF inflows, XRP overtook Solana, but investments are still trickling into the ecosystem.
If the broader crypto market sees a significant breakdown today, Solana may prove especially fragile. If SOL loses support at $77.5, a drop to the $68 region—last tested 59 days ago—becomes likely.
Such a move would take Solana back to levels last seen at the start of 2024. The $77.5 mark had previously served as the launchpad for this year’s rally; losing it could accelerate the current downtrend. If the old $68 resistance fails to provide support, the focus would shift to $54.6 as the next critical level.
