Bitcoin’s prolonged bear market may have ended, according to new onchain analysis revealing the first bullish reversal in ten months. The key metric is the Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator from CryptoQuant, an analytics platform specializing in blockchain and digital asset data.
CryptoQuant indicator flashes first bull reading since 2025
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin’s bear cycle is now over after the Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator produced a positive reading. On August 26, the indicator registered a value of 0.042, shifting into bullish territory for the first time since October 2025.
This transition from negative to positive numbers has previously signaled the beginning of new bull markets, including a similar move in early 2023. Ki highlighted this development on X, noting the indicator’s track record in identifying trend reversals.
The Bitcoin bear cycle is over, according to Ki Young Ju. The Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, after ten months below zero, turned positive with a reading of 0.042.
The Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator measures the distance between the aggregate P&L Index and its 365-day moving average. The composite P&L Index incorporates metrics such as the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and spent output profit ratio (SOPR), each offering insights into investor profitability and market sentiment.
Mini dictionary: CryptoQuant is a blockchain analytics firm that provides onchain data, metrics, and research tools to investors and traders in the digital asset market.
A value above zero for the indicator typically signals the start of bullish market conditions, as investors’ realized and unrealized profits turn positive. A significant low occurred on February 5, with the indicator at -1.244 as Bitcoin dropped to $60,000, a level corresponding to what CryptoQuant identifies as “extreme bear” market conditions.
| Date | BTC/USD Price | Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator | Market Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | $60,000 | -1.244 | Extreme Bear |
| Aug 26, 2026 | N/A | 0.042 | Bull |
| Oct 2025 | N/A | Last Positive Value | Bull |
Market debates persist as optimism grows
While bullish signals are emerging across multiple analytics platforms, some analysts remain wary. Historical data show that the combination of the P&L Index and its long-term trendline has reliably marked major cyclical shifts in Bitcoin’s price action. However, market confidence in a sustained bull run is far from universal.
Recent weeks have brought tentative bullish readings from other metrics, including the relative strength index (RSI), which previously turned positive at the close of 2022. Yet, skepticism persists due to concerns over low liquidity and weak demand.
Analysts at Cointelegraph and other market observers have pointed out that Bitcoin faces multiple resistance levels above its current spot price, which could challenge upward momentum unless demand returns.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital has described the August monthly close as a pivotal moment. They point to Bitcoin’s need to break out from a downward-sloping resistance trend line that has been in place since October of last year.
The August monthly close could be pivotal for Bitcoin, as a breakout from persistent resistance would help confirm the bull reversal, according to Rekt Capital.
As the debate continues, market participants are watching closely to determine whether Bitcoin’s recent signals will translate into a sustained recovery or be met by renewed selling pressure.
