The popular memecoin Dogecoin 
$0.099251 (DOGE) has fallen below its short-term upward trend, putting its recovery since December at risk. Technical analysis data strengthens the possibility of the five-month rally ending. Experts emphasize the importance of monitoring the $0.26 level as a critical support point, with the MACD indicator also signaling a downturn.
Technical Indicators Raise Alarms for Dogecoin
Following a surge of approximately 500% from August to December 2024, Dogecoin now faces a sharp correction. The price has dipped below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of this rise, increasing the risk of a trend reversal. According to technical analysis rules, losing this level could signal the end of the current upward trend.
The MACD histogram, with deepening red bars below the zero line, supports bear market momentum. The downward trend of the 5 and 10-day moving averages indicates that sellers have taken control. All these data suggest that downward pressure on DOGE coin will persist in the short term.
Support Levels and Possible Scenarios for DOGE Coin
Experts identify the first critical support level for DOGE at $0.26, marking the lowest point from December 20. If this level is breached, declines could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the August-December rally at $0.234. However, if the price breaks above the upward trend line drawn from December’s low, it could invalidate this negative scenario.
There is consensus among market participants that Bitcoin 
$75,023‘s volatility also influences DOGE. A decline in global market risk appetite directly affects speculative assets like memecoins. On the other hand, positive statements from figures like Elon Musk should not be overlooked for their potential to rapidly recover prices.
