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In the midst of rising market volatility, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has consolidated at around $1,750, showing a 3% decrease compared to last week’s peak. A comprehensive analysis of on-chain data indicates that increased staking activities have helped ETH avoid a steep pullback. In contrast to the 13% decline in the global altcoin market value, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has demonstrated significant resilience in the past two weeks.
The heightened demand from worried altcoin investors and an increase in ETH staking activities have played a vital role in ETH’s robust performance. Currently, markets are pricing in a 78% probability of a pause in the Fed Interest Rate. How could the impending Fed Rate announcement impact ETH price movements in the upcoming weeks?
State of Ethereum
After reaching an all-time high in May, staking activities in the Ethereum ecosystem continued to increase in June 2023. Glassnode’s Supply in Smart Contracts metric, which tracks the percentage of circulating total ETH staked in various protocols, measures staking activity.
Between June 1 and June 12, crypto investors staked an additional 360,000 ETH coins in Ethereum Beacon Chain and DeFi smart contracts. When a coin’s Supply in Smart Contracts increases, the quantity that can be bought and sold on exchanges decreases. This market squeeze is likely to trigger a positive ETH price movement.
Notably, the United States Federal Reserve will announce the next Interest Rate decision on June 14. If the Fed announces a rate cut or a pause as expected, ETH staking activities are likely to increase even more in the upcoming weeks.
The Ethereum Exchange Rate
As further confirmation of the bullish outlook, exchange transaction expectations show that crypto traders are currently accumulating more orders to buy more ETH. The Exchange On-Chain Market Depth graph displays the total buy/sell orders of Ethereum traders across different crypto exchanges.
Amid the turbulence in the altcoin markets, crypto traders placed orders to buy an additional 137,000 ETH coins. Meanwhile, sellers only listed 122,000 ETH for sale. When demand for an asset exceeds the available supply on exchanges, upward pressure could be created on the price as buyers start to compete.
Currently, there is a supply shortage of 15,000 ETH on crypto exchanges. Rather than selling at the current prices, ETH owners are more interested in locking their tokens in smart contracts to generate returns. A potential Fed Rate pause could further intensify these trends.
In conclusion, these crucial factors could enable the ETH price to witness positive price movements in the upcoming weeks. As of today, ETH continues to trade at a current level of 41,000 TL.
Critical $1,850 Resistance for ETH
Taking into account the factors mentioned above, if a pause in the Federal Interest Rate is announced, Ethereum’s price could rise towards $2,000. However, for bulls to be confident about a positive price movement, ETH’s first resistance needs to be overcome at $1,850.
According to IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of The Money Around Price (IOMAP) data, 3.38 million investors who purchased an average of 10.97 million ETH at a price of $1,835 could trigger a pullback. However, if ETH scales this resistance region, it could advance towards a $2,000 price target.
On the other hand, if bears unexpectedly drop below the critical $1,700 support region, they could invalidate ETH’s bullish price recovery. Still, 1.23 million investors who purchased a minimum of 1.79 million ETH at a price of $1,700 will likely prevent a downtrend. However, if this support level is not maintained, ETH’s price could still retrace to $1,595.
