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The transition to PoS did not bring the expected results, but the risk increased after the last major update. Eventually, the feared outcome occurred, and the supply graph, which is discouraging for Ether investors, is moving north. This is not good for ETH in the long term. So why is the situation bad?
Ethereum (ETH) Supply
Among cryptocurrencies, Ether is the largest altcoin, and it was hoped that the supply would shrink further with the burning mechanism and the PoS transition, leading to a price increase. This did not happen. The story of the ever-shrinking supply driving the spot price to new highs ended early. The circulating supply has been steadily increasing since April 14.
The increase in circulating supply is an obstacle to the rise in unit price. The rate of increase in circulating supply, combined with new demand, makes price increases mandatory. At the same time, the increase in supply indicates a weakening in network activity. User activity on the network was around 611,000 on June 22 and recently dropped by 37%.
Daily transactions on the Ethereum network also fell by 15% from 1.3 million on June 22. As network activity weakened, the amount of burning also decreased, and as the supply entering circulation exceeded the burn, the circulating supply increased. Thus, Ethereum’s deflationary cryptocurrency story came to an end.
ETF and the deflationary structure formed the basis of beautiful dreams last year. Under current conditions, as $172 million worth of ETH entered circulation in 30 days, ETH must constantly generate demand. The current supply is 120.3 million, and it easily reached the highest level of 2024.
ETH Price Prediction
Despite weeks passing since the ETF approval, ETH has not shown the expected performance. Moreover, the continuously increasing supply indicates that more investors’ risk appetite is needed. The price at $2,720 has fallen by 15% in the last 30 days. Although RSI and buy/sell demand currently indicate balance, fluctuations in BTC will be decisive for the direction.
In a possible rise, the ETH price could reach $2,867. In a decline, $2,535 will be targeted. Although the total volume increased by 10% compared to yesterday, it stands at $60 billion and looks weak for an upward trend.
