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This week, Fed Chairman Powell did not make a definitive statement about rate cuts, but the market expects a cut in September. He mentioned that they will monitor the data and continue to make decisions from meeting to meeting, emphasizing the importance of today’s data. So, how did the latest data turn out?
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On the last trading day of the week, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Wage Growth data were released. Powell stated that they do not want further declines in employment and if there is a decline beyond expectations, they might need to act more quickly. This means that if there is a significant decline in employment, the Fed might cut rates by 50bp instead of 25bp in September.
The details of today’s data are as follows:
- US Unemployment Rate Announced: 4.3% (Expectation and Previous: 4.1%)
- Non-Farm Payrolls Announced: 114K (Expectation: 175K Previous: 206K)
- Average Hourly Earnings Announced: 3.6% (Expectation: 3.7% Previous: 3.9%)
The data came out extremely well, and a rate cut in September should be fully confirmed. If next month’s data is also positive, a 50bp cut by the Fed might even be discussed.
