Telegram’s founder Pavel Durov was shockingly arrested in Paris over the weekend. Following the incident, bets on Polymarket regarding Durov’s release by the end of August dropped from 50% to 25%. The French judicial system and preliminary hearing process have significantly reduced Durov’s chances of release. Despite being recognized as the founder of Telegram and a billionaire entrepreneur, Durov faces legal challenges during this process.
How Did Bets on Polymarket Shape Up?
Polymarket is known as a Blockchain-based prediction platform. Accordingly, users can earn profits by betting on various events on this platform. Pavel Durov‘s arrest initially led bettors to set his release probability at 50%. However, due to the processes of French authorities and the judicial system, the rate quickly dropped to 25%. The total value of the bets is around $69,000. Of course, this amount is quite low compared to Polymarket’s other major bets.
Pavel Durov’s arrest occurred as part of a preliminary investigation conducted by France’s National Anti-Fraud Office. Durov is accused of failing to prevent various crimes on the Telegram platform and not cooperating sufficiently with the police. Telegram describes these accusations as “absurd” and states that the platform complies with EU laws, particularly the Digital Services Act.
Telegram Responds
Telegram issued a statement denying the charges against Durov. The company argued that the platform or its founder cannot be held responsible for misuse incidents occurring on the platform. It is noted that Durov can be held in custody for 96 hours under French law, after which a judge is expected to decide whether his detention will continue. However, due to Durov’s billionaire status and multiple citizenships, a pre-trial detention decision might be made due to the risk of flight.
Following Durov’s arrest, Telegram-associated Toncoin (TON) lost 17% of its value. The development caused a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, while uncertainties about Durov’s future continue. As the founder of Telegram, Durov has a significant influence on both the company and its users, and he may face serious legal challenges during this process.
While uncertainty remains about whether Durov will be released, Telegram’s stance is clear. It is claimed that Durov has nothing to hide and that the platform operates in compliance with EU laws. However, the decision of the French judiciary seems to be the most critical factor that will determine the future of Durov and Telegram.
