Crypto market maker Wintermute has revealed that long-term funds have begun gradually buying Bitcoin through over-the-counter (OTC) transactions. According to the firm’s June 1 market assessment, these investors find current Bitcoin prices near $72,000 attractive from an 18-month perspective.
Steady accumulation in OTC markets
Wintermute’s weekly update highlighted that funds with a longer-term outlook are entering the market via OTC trading desks. Instead of placing large orders at once, these purchases are broken into smaller trades to avoid impacting the market price directly.
Mini glossary: OTC, or over-the-counter trading, refers to trades conducted directly between parties rather than via exchange order books. TWAP is a method that allows large orders to be executed over time at prices close to the average market price.
Wintermute indicated that long-term investors are gradually buying via OTC desks without trying to time the market bottom, considering current price levels attractive for an 18-month horizon.
The company identified a critical support zone for Bitcoin between $60,000 and $65,000, noting this range as a key reference point for long-term investors when determining the size of their positions. Wintermute added that while the summer outlook appears relatively weak, current market conditions resemble a reset phase rather than a lasting breakdown.
ETF outflows intensify
This OTC accumulation has coincided with significant outflows from exchange-traded funds. In the past week alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows totaling about $1.4 billion—the longest sustained withdrawal period since these products launched.
Ethereum ETFs also saw around $240 million in outflows during the same timeframe. Between May 20 and May 29, outflows from both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs reached approximately $2 billion. The report also noted that Strategy, the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin, began selling during this period, putting additional pressure on market sentiment.
Crypto lags as equities rally
According to Wintermute, cryptocurrencies have been unable to keep pace with the broader rally in risk assets over the past two weeks. Investors have been redirecting capital toward Nasdaq and Russell 2000 equities, leaving the crypto market largely outside this rotation. The S&P 500 recorded its ninth consecutive weekly gain, closing up 1.9%, while Nasdaq surged 8% for the month.
Wintermute observed that the buying momentum which drove Bitcoin from $70,000 to $80,000 in April has faded, with marginal capital now focused on Nvidia, Dell, and small-cap stocks.
The macroeconomic picture has also played a role in this divergence. April’s PCE data showed 3.8% for the headline figure and 3.3% for the core rate. In the bond market, the probability of an interest rate hike before year-end is being priced between 35% and 40%. Wintermute pointed out that the third quarter could see a renewed bout of stagnation and inflationary pressures.
The company argued that equities are climbing more because of robust earnings from AI-focused firms than because of improved macro conditions. Meanwhile, the lack of a similarly strong narrative in crypto leaves the sector more exposed to macroeconomic challenges. Key events to watch in the short term include Wednesday’s release of CPI and PPI data, as well as the launch of CME Nasdaq crypto index futures starting Monday.
