Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering a period of early recovery following several months of weakness, according to analytics firm Glassnode’s latest Week On-Chain report. After prolonged selling pressure from long-term holders throughout 2026, Glassnode observes that this source of market stress has started to ease.
Market sentiment turns on softer US inflation data
US inflation cooled in the latest reading, with annual price growth coming in at 3.5% rather than the expected 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Falling energy costs contributed to the softer figures, which helped bolster risk appetite across various asset classes.
Bitcoin reacted more positively to the inflation news than major equities, suggesting that investors increasingly see BTC as distinct from traditional risk assets. Over recent months, the relationship between Bitcoin and stock indices has continued to weaken.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the US dollar has intensified, signaling that broader liquidity trends now play a greater role in the cryptocurrency’s price movements than equity market sentiment.
Glassnode highlights, “Bitcoin trades less like a stock proxy and more like an asset that firms when the dollar weakens.”
Mini dictionary: Glassnode is an on-chain analytics company that tracks and interprets blockchain data for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, providing insights for both retail and institutional investors.
ETF outflows slow but new inflows elusive
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US have seen a sharp slowdown in redemptions since the June peak, suggesting the wave of investor withdrawals is losing steam. However, sustained net inflows to these funds have yet to reappear, keeping overall sentiment cautious among institutional participants.
On the derivatives front, Glassnode points out that the options put/call ratio has reached its lowest level of 2026. This shift implies that traders are allowing downside protection to lapse, indicating reduced demand for bearish positions. At the same time, perpetual funding rates show a neutral stance, reinforcing the cautious mood.
Key $69,000 level in focus for Bitcoin’s recovery
Despite signs of stabilization, Glassnode maintains that Bitcoin remains stuck in a “deep value” phase, not yet confirming a clear uptrend. According to the report, Bitcoin is trading above its historical bear-market floor, referred to as the Realized Price, but has yet to break through the next major resistance, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, which stands near $69,000. This price marks the average purchase cost for recent investors and is considered a key threshold for a sustained bullish reversal.
Currently, Bitcoin is testing its $66,000 “max pain” options strike, a level that has anchored the spot price for much of the year. Breaking above the $69,000 mark would signal shifting momentum, while a failure to regain this level could confirm continued investor caution.
| Key Level | Role in BTC Price Action |
|---|---|
| Realized Price | Historical bear-market floor |
| Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($69,000) | Major resistance, break-even for recent buyers |
| “Max Pain” Options Strike ($66,000) | Price attracting spot and options activity |
While long-term holder selling pressure is easing, and ETF redemptions have slowed, the market’s recovery is described as tentative. Glassnode reports that a stronger wave of spot buying is required for a sustained uptrend to take hold.
Despite improving fundamental signals, Glassnode suggests the market needs to reclaim and hold above $69,000 to confirm a definitive bullish shift.
