On-chain analyst PlanB, recognized for developing the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has presented a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the ongoing halving cycle. He now projects that the top cryptocurrency could reach between $250,000 and $1 million, with an average target around $500,000 before the end of this cycle.
Stock-to-Flow model forecasts
PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model, which links Bitcoin’s value to its programmed scarcity through halving cycles, has been widely referenced in crypto markets. The model underscores Bitcoin’s four-year rhythm, driven by reward halvings that reduce new supply and historically impact price increases.
Slightly more than half of the current halving period had passed since April 2024, leaving roughly 639 days, or nearly two years, until the cycle ends. PlanB argues that despite the present market cooldown, history shows that significant upward moves often arrive later in the cycle.
Mini dictionary: Stock-to-Flow (S2F), a quantitative model that evaluates the scarcity of assets by comparing total supply (stock) to annual production (flow), widely used to estimate Bitcoin’s long-term value based on supply shocks after halving events.
He estimates that Bitcoin’s real surge toward the S2F model’s upper price targets is likely to occur between 2026 and 2028, rather than marking a peak at its recent highs.
Risks and market cycles
PlanB also addresses downside risks and market volatility, noting that Bitcoin could see new local lows before a strong rebound. In past bear markets, the asset’s price frequently dipped below its realized price—a metric representing the average acquisition cost across all bitcoin in circulation—which now stands at $53,000.
He cautions that while price retracements can be unsettling, they should not be confused with the end of the Bitcoin bull cycle. Instead, these phases often create the conditions for renewed upward momentum.
| Metric | Current Level | PlanB’s Target Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Price (local high) | $126,000 | – |
| Realized Price | $53,000 | – |
| Projected Target | – | $250,000–$1,000,000 |
| Cycle End Date | – | 2026–2028 |
PlanB notes that the transition from pessimism to optimism typically occurs when most market participants least expect it. A rapid rise toward new highs could catch short sellers and skeptics off guard.
Investor guidance
According to PlanB, the long-term bullish trend in Bitcoin remains intact, and the period of the greatest supply constraint lies ahead. He encourages patience and discourages short-term emotional reactions to market downturns.
PlanB emphasizes that Bitcoin’s long-term trend has not been disrupted, with the primary supply shortage yet to come. He reiterates that “Patience” remains his key message for investors navigating current volatility.
