The recent agreement between the United States and Iran has not only brought volatility to Bitcoin, but has also set the gold market in motion. As fears of escalating global conflict mounted, concerns grew that inflation would accelerate worldwide, prompting central banks to reverse course and raise interest rates once again. However, hopes for a cease-fire and a subsequent drop in oil prices have revived expectations that the US Federal Reserve might cut rates as soon as 2026. With these developments in play, observers are asking: What is the current outlook for gold?
ETF inflows signal revived demand
For the first time since the onset of conflict, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have begun to show signs of recovery. Financial institution TKL has singled out the significant uptick in demand. According to data for the week ending April 3, gold ETFs recorded a net intake of 9 metric tons—the highest level since late February. Following four consecutive weeks of outflows totaling 88 tons after the outbreak of hostilities in Iran, sales of gold ETFs appear to have ceased abruptly.
GLD leads as holdings climb
GLD, the largest US-based gold-backed ETF, alone added 7 tons last week, with its total holdings reaching 1,054 tons—marking the highest level since March 20. This resurgence reflects renewed investor appetite for gold as a safe haven asset amid shifting geopolitical and economic conditions.
GLD’s holdings, though at their strongest since April 2022, remain 47 tons below their March peak of 1,101 tons. Meanwhile, SLV, a leading silver-backed ETF, saw its holdings dip by 24 tons last week to 15,264 tons—a level not seen since last November. Investors appear to be returning to the precious metals market.
While gold ETFs are drawing substantial inflows, further upward momentum in spot gold prices is increasingly likely. In Turkey, last month’s gold sales attracted notable attention. Amid the recent conflict, many investors were forced to liquidate their gold holdings to manage capital, leading to downward price pressure. With the risk of war now receding, a return to accumulation among investors seems the most logical scenario.
The key resistance level is currently set at $4,800, with gold trading just below this threshold. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have fallen over 15 percent, and US markets opened the day with an unusual gain exceeding 3.5 percent. Dubai’s Financial Market index also staged a strong rally, jumping 10 percent at the opening. As the anticipated risks quickly abated, market developments reversed course across global indices.
Despite prevailing optimism, the cease-fire remains fragile. There are lingering risks—including the possibility of sudden policy shifts or renewed escalation prompted by unpredictable political actors. Nevertheless, if stability holds, gold could surpass the $4,850 mark and advance toward $4,980. A move and close above this level would pave the way for a potential test of $5,250, and raise the prospect of revisiting the $5,600–$6,000 range.
On the other hand, should gold break below the $4,600 and $4,480 support levels, the path would open toward lower targets at $4,300, $4,180, and $4,080—signaling renewed bearish momentum.
While gold rebounded, silver-backed ETFs like SLV faced ongoing outflows, highlighting divided investor sentiment and the selective return to precious metals markets.
These volatile swings in both gold and silver ETFs underscore how quickly global markets are responding to shifts in geopolitical risk and central bank policy expectations. The movements in gold, in particular, show that investors are willing to re-enter the market when uncertainty begins to dissipate, yet remain quick to pull back if fresh risks emerge.
Looking ahead, much will depend on whether the cease-fire holds and energy prices continue to moderate. Should relative stability persist, gold could benefit from a more favorable macroeconomic backdrop—especially if central banks become more dovish. For now, the gold market is finely balanced between fragile optimism and the ever-present risk of renewed volatility.
