XRP faced renewed selling pressure as October ended, with the token struggling to maintain levels above $1.30. Buyers attempted to hold support amid shifting institutional flows and mixed macroeconomic signals, creating an uncertain short-term outlook.
Google Gemini outlines XRP price paths
Google Gemini, an artificial intelligence platform developed by Google, released an assessment mapping out XRP’s potential closing range for October 31, 2026. The evaluation considered technical price levels, spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and the influence of upcoming industry events.
The analysis presented three possible scenarios. The baseline case, assigned a 60% probability, sees XRP consolidating between $1.25 and $1.42 through the month’s end. This scenario assumes the $1.28 to $1.30 support zone holds, and leverage in derivatives markets remains subdued, keeping price action within a tight range.
A bullish outcome, given a 25% likelihood, projects a rally in XRP to between $1.45 and $1.65 if there is a breakout above $1.42. Factors such as renewed inflows into U.S. spot XRP ETFs, positive momentum from industry events, or announcements from Ripple’s Swell conference in New York could push the token higher.
Conversely, the bearish scenario received a 15% probability, with XRP expected to fall toward the $1.08 to $1.22 range if support fails at $1.25. Persistent selling pressure, declining investor confidence, or hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve present further downside risks.
| Scenario | Probability | Price Range |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 60% | $1.25–$1.42 |
| Bullish | 25% | $1.45–$1.65 |
| Bearish | 15% | $1.08–$1.22 |
ETF flows and macro trends in focus
Recent U.S. inflation data has created additional uncertainties for Federal Reserve policy. If the central bank signals tighter financial conditions, risk assets such as cryptocurrencies often face renewed selling as investors reduce allocation to more volatile assets.
ETF flows added another key factor for XRP’s direction. After 13 consecutive weeks of net buying, U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded temporary outflows. Sustained positive inflows could help stabilize or lift prices, while ongoing withdrawals are likely to hinder recovery in the near term.
Google Gemini’s assessment highlights that spot ETF demand, macro signals, and industry events are likely to dictate whether XRP remains range-bound or breaks out of current price levels.
XRP derivatives markets also drew attention. Futures open interest reached above $2.7 billion in early October before leverage pulled back, potentially signaling a cleanup of speculative positions and reducing liquidation risks.
Industry events and key announcements
Ripple’s Swell conference is set to take place in New York on October 27, bringing together institutional partners and industry leaders for discussions on digital asset adoption and infrastructure.
Announcements related to institutional services, the planned RLUSD stablecoin, custody solutions, or credit initiatives could influence market sentiment and volatility leading up to the month’s close.
Mini dictionary: RLUSD stablecoin, Ripple’s upcoming U.S. dollar-pegged digital asset designed to support faster and more reliable payments for institutional clients.
Traders are expected to monitor spot volumes and price action around significant resistance levels to gauge the market’s reaction to these developments.
Support and resistance levels in play
The $1.25 to $1.28 range remains a crucial support area for XRP. Holding above this zone keeps the current consolidation intact, while a decisive break below could trigger a move toward $1.22 or lower.
On the upside, resistance is expected at $1.38 and $1.42. Should XRP break above $1.42 with follow-through, targets between $1.45 and $1.65 come into view for the bullish scenario.
Market participants continue to track these technical zones as October draws to a close, with most forecasts clustering around the $1.25–$1.42 price range at month-end.
