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IMF President emphasized that the Fed appears convincing on the path to a soft landing, but market expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened. The expectation of a 150bp rate cut by 2024, which has decreased, shows that we are not in such a good position on the macro front compared to yesterday. However, until January 10th, optimism about ETF approval specifically in the crypto market has been dominant, so for now, we are isolated from the negativity in the risk markets.
Ethereum (ETH)
Institutional entries into cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, have increased. There has been abnormal demand for weeks, and this is due to the increasing optimism that approval is imminent. The Ether price is witnessing a breakout due to the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. This rising trend briefly pushed the Ether price above $2,400 on January 2nd.
ETH, which underperformed BTC last year, has started this year well and may now break the bears’ leg. Moreover, the news flow is supportive for ETH. While investors are focused on the BTC ETF, the next thing in line is the Ethereum ETF approval, which has the power to trigger speculative surges.
The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, applied for a Spot ETH ETF on November 9th, followed by Fidelity. Grayscale’s Trust plan to convert to an ETH ETF was immediately activated.
ETH Price Future
We said that the expectation of approval leads to an increase in institutional capital inflows, and the CME BTC price is trading with a $1300 premium. However, the network fundamentals of Ethereum emphasize a long-term growth appetite beyond speculative rises.
The Ethereum ecosystem’s TVL (Total Value Locked) saw its ATH (All-Time High) level at $106.7 billion before a sharp decline on November 14, 2021. In 2023, Ethereum saw significant recoveries in total locked value, largely thanks to liquid staking derivatives like Lido.
Apart from Lido, the top 10 Ethereum DApps continued to grow. Specifically, Spark and Rocket Pool experienced a TVL increase of 18% and 7%, respectively.
The network has a -0.48% inflation rate over a 30-day period, which is effectively deflationary, another detail that supports long-term optimism. Nearly 119,000 ETH were burned in 30 days, and this number reached 1.273 million in 474 days.
If Ether can maintain $2,400 as support in the short term, it may see new highs and the current price could remain cheap relative to the future. However, it is necessary to monitor the cessation of ETF speculation and whether the ongoing positive sentiment in ETF volumes continues.
