Bitcoin halving is just hours away, and as the block reward halving approaches, buyers are notably unenthusiastic. The next 12-18 months are expected to be highly volatile, and BTC is likely to reach its cycle peak. However, there are other important issues besides the price, such as the legal status of cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrency and Regulations
Blockchain analysis firm Merkle Science’s policy director Natalia Latka discussed the indirect effects of the upcoming Bitcoin halving on regulations. So far, we have not seen comprehensive rules regulating cryptocurrencies, including Europe’s MiCA. There is no such legislation in effect. Many countries have not moved beyond the preliminary preparation stage for years, and the US has suspended bill discussions ahead of upcoming elections.
Natalia made the following assessment in her latest review:
“Although regulations or regulators’ approach are not directly affected, market dynamics influenced by halving events can indirectly impact regulatory issues, particularly in areas related to market stability and investor protection.”
Another key issue is evolving with a focus on environmental protection alongside investor protection. In 2021, the familiar criticisms were related to miners’ energy usage. Natalia Latka says about this:
“Bitcoin’s halving could also affect energy consumption. With the reduction in rewards given for mining, less efficient miners may be pushed out of the market, potentially leading to a concentration of mining activities among larger players. This could attract regulatory scrutiny regarding the environmental impacts of PoW [proof-of-work] and lead to regulations focused on sustainability.”
US Laws Remain Unclear
Attorney Andrew Balthazor focuses on the ambiguity of US laws regarding cryptocurrencies. Currently, even government agencies are conflicted internally due to this ambiguity. We have often seen disagreements where one says white and the other says black between the SEC and the CFTC.
“Despite a general consensus that Bitcoin is not a security, there is still no clarity in the US. You cannot definitively say whether Bitcoin, Ether, or any cryptocurrency is this or that. We are not inclined to have many court decisions that definitively state that crypto tokens are always a security. Therefore, we have some contradictory lower court decisions in the US that are not binding on other courts. The problem is this: the lack of clear and definitive guidelines means that businesses often find themselves navigating a regulatory minefield, unsure if their operations comply with current or future interpretations of the laws.”
