Cryptocurrency investors face another nightmare day, especially with rapidly increasing losses in altcoins. Fed week brings normal occurrences. We mentioned the high risk of facing such a scenario after Friday’s TDI data. On Sunday, we warned of the sharp sell-off risk in altcoins if the $68,500 support could not be maintained. Both occurred.
Why Did Ethereum Drop?
So why did the Ethereum price drop to the $3,500 levels despite the ETF approval? It is due to sales triggered by the negative sentiment in the general market. This was triggered by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, 3-year interest rate forecasts, and the inflation figures coming on Wednesday. It is a chain reaction. The increase in bond yields after recent data triggered an escape from risk markets.
The US 10-year Treasury bond rose last week, and investors are expecting further increases as they await the Dot Plot (members’ 3-year interest rate forecasts). The slowdown in the decline of inflation and the market expectation moving away from the members’ 75bp average cut expectation are evident. The likelihood of a rate cut before December was certain until Friday’s data, but that has also disappeared. At best, there will be 2 rate cuts this year, which is even below the members’ average forecast at the beginning of the year.
Now bond yields are rising with the expectation that the stickiness in inflation could push Fed members’ 3-year interest rate forecasts higher. If bond yields rise, cryptocurrencies will also fall. That is happening.
In March, Fed officials expected a three-quarter-point rate cut by the end of 2024. However, strong economic data, including strong job growth in May, disrupted things.
Ethereum Whales and Price
ETH price drop is happening despite the ETF approval due to reasons mentioned in the first section. The launch announcement will come soon, but it is unlikely to trigger a spectacular return because, in the first trading days, ETHE (similar to GBTC, continuously, with volume) will experience exits. At least, that is the expectation. On the other hand, whales with a balance of 1 million-10 million ETH (brown) saw their supply decrease by 1%. Whales with assets between 100 thousand and 1 million also turned to selling.
On the technical front, we are in the middle of a correction following the drop from the overbought level in the RSI. If the $3,475 level can be maintained, deeper dips can be avoided. In the opposite scenario, a return to the $3,600 to $3,800 range is likely.
