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Everyone was focused on the US inflation data, and this was behind the ongoing investor caution. Investors were anxious about the possibility of inflation exceeding expectations again. Fed Chairman Powell’s relatively dovish comments still signaled a new bitter pill.
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Fed Chairman Powell stated in his remarks yesterday that they could keep interest rates at their peak for a longer period if necessary. However, some members went further, implying that the neutral interest rate might have risen. This raises fears of a few more rate hikes while everyone is waiting for cuts to begin.
The first rate cut expected in March has been postponed to September, and the market’s 150bp cut expectation has been shattered. Now, the expectation for a cut in September is weakening, and the market estimate has dropped to 50bp.
In this environment, the April inflation data was critical in confirming the potential failure of the Fed’s tight monetary policy. The headline inflation expectation for April was 3.4%, and it was announced at 3.5% the previous month. For core inflation, the expectation was 3.6%, and the previous month’s figure was 3.8%.
- US Inflation Announced: 3.4% (Expectation: 3.4% Previous: 3.5%)
- US Core Inflation Announced: 3.6% (Expectation: 3.6% Previous: 3.8%)
The data was positive for the cryptocurrency markets, and BTC price increased.
