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This week is not particularly intense for cryptocurrencies; however, preparations for the end of the month are expected to impact the market. The upcoming PCE data, scheduled for release at the end of the month, is anticipated to create pressure on investors, especially following Powell’s comments regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI). What are QCP analysts thinking?
Key Developments of the Day
The PCE data is set to be released at the end of the month. Powell stated last week, “We will watch the PPI and thus have an idea about the PCE.” The PPI came in significantly higher than expected, suggesting that the forthcoming PCE data will likely exert further pressure on the markets.
As inflation rises, if the PCE figures are also high, we may find ourselves in a troubling situation where the Fed will not consider any interest rate cuts this year, and discussions about potential increases may arise. With expectations for easing being pulled back to the most basic scenario, any data favoring interest rate cuts will be extremely supportive for the cryptocurrency markets. The worst-case scenario for easing has already been priced in.
QCP Crypto Predictions
As COINTURK shared the day’s predictions and short-term expectations in the first section, what are QCP Capital analysts’ latest forecasts regarding the markets? These analysts, who prioritize evaluating macroeconomic developments alongside specific cryptocurrency events, stated the following in their recent assessments:
“While ETH and other altcoins continue to underperform, BTC dominance has risen to nearly 60%, approaching its highest levels in four years. The recent ‘rug pull’ scandal involving Argentine President Javier Milei and $LIBRA is not a positive sign for those expecting a seasonal surge in altcoins or memecoins.”
It is hoped that these rug pulls will deter new investors from worthless meme coins, allowing liquidity in altcoins to recover.
“With BTC comfortably returning to the middle of its range, implied volumes continue to decline. This is not surprising, considering the 7-day realized volume has dropped to 36. Without a significant crypto-specific catalyst, the price action appears to be largely macro-focused, especially as the correlation between BTC and equities remains largely intact.
However, it is interesting to note that despite macro uncertainties (tariffs, debt ceiling, inflation, etc.) and Trump’s unpredictability, crypto implied volumes and VIX are still trading at their lowest levels. BTC has proven to be relatively unaffected by the recent macro data, and open interest has not significantly rebounded since the end of January. This indicates that the crypto options market is waiting on concrete policy changes rather than crypto-friendly rhetoric.
The market remains indecisive about whether the volumes at these levels, reminiscent of last year’s second and third quarters when BTC struggled to break out of its multi-month range, are worth the decay costs. Instead, most flows are attempting to trade within the range rather than positioning for a recent volatility sell-off or a major breakout.”
Experienced investors anticipate significant movement in cryptocurrencies following this silence. Once this movement begins, many will claim they predicted it; however, numerous investors making loss sales currently will likely be caught unprepared for the rise.
