Rumors about the potential resignation of US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell have created a shockwave in financial markets today. Although there is no official confirmation yet, the possibility of Powell stepping down could severely affect the perceived safety of the US dollar. An abrupt leadership change at the Fed might lead to significant sell-offs in both stock and bond markets. Interestingly, on the Polymarket platform, the event of “Trump dismissing Powell in 2025” is priced with only a 12% probability.
Impact of Powell’s Potential Resignation
Economists argue that an unexpected departure of the Fed Chairman could disrupt crucial decision-making processes, ranging from inflation expectations to balance sheet management. The resulting leadership vacuum may invite increased political pressure and raise concerns about the Fed’s independence. According to market strategist Diane Roberts, the “worst-case scenario” would involve an intensified search for safe havens, initiating a sell-off in US bonds, causing the dollar index to plummet, and driving gold prices to new peaks.
Another hot topic in Washington circles is President Donald Trump’s explicit call for interest rate cuts. Last week, Trump invited Powell to the White House, urging him to reduce the policy rate, currently set between 4.25–4.50, as a “pre-election brake.” However, Powell reiterated that he will not pivot until inflation figures improve.
As Trump heightens pressure on the Fed and Powell by stating, “his term will end soon anyway,” investment banks note that the chances of the rumor becoming a reality are minimal.
Bitcoin’s Unexpected Resilience
While Wall Street indices turned red amid Powell resignation rumors, Bitcoin (BTC) 
$68,561, the largest cryptocurrency, maintained a stable position around $105,000, attracting attention. Analysts suggest that despite the three-year low in the dollar index and sell-offs in bonds, Bitcoin is fortifying its “alternative safe haven” perception. Additionally, factors like institutional demand, regulatory clarity, and spot ETF flows may spur a new wave of growth without monetary expansion needs.
Nonetheless, Cryptoquant data indicates that the unrealized profit ratio in exchanges is nearing its peak since 2021, sending short-term overheat signals. Some investors argue that maintaining the $105,000 threshold could lead to a retest of the $111,000 peak, whereas others suggest that a potential Powell shock might trigger a rapid correction to $95,000 initially.
For now, market participants continue to assess the extent to which an unexpected leadership change at the Fed will affect the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market.
