Ethereum’s native asset Ether is once again under the spotlight following striking movements by major stakeholders, as highlighted in recent on-chain data. The profitability ratio of wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH has climbed back above zero, suggesting that the market may be rebounding from a recent low. In past cycles, this shift has been a precursor to considerable price gains for ETH over three- and six-month periods.
Whale Activity Strengthens Outlook for Market Recovery
According to CryptoQuant, the largest group of ETH holders has collectively moved back into profit territory for the first time since early February. This change means these investors are no longer sitting on paper losses. Many in the market interpret this as a sign that selling pressure could ease, giving large holders the confidence to maintain or even expand their positions without distress.
On-chain analyst CW noted that major Ethereum holders returning to profit has repeatedly coincided with the beginning of upward trends in the past.
Historical data suggests that, following this signal, Ether has typically gained around 25 percent in value within three months, and up to 50 percent after six months. Over a full year, the rallies have been even more pronounced. If these historical patterns were to hold, ETH could reach about $2,750 by June and surpass $3,200 by September. However, the indicator is not infallible—after a similar change in 2018, ETH saw a rapid 17.5 percent dip and steeper losses subsequently. As a result, whale data alone is viewed as insufficient for a definitive market outlook.
Though promising, this metric is best considered alongside broader context. The lessons of 2018 serve as a cautionary tale: not every historical signal has led to a bull run. Market participants generally acknowledge that while big wallet profitability can mark important inflection points, it does not, in isolation, determine future trends. It is part of a more complex market puzzle.
On-Chain and Technical Metrics Highlight Key Thresholds
Glassnode’s MVRV deviation bands offer further evidence supporting Ethereum’s recovery narrative. ETH recently bounced off lower deviation bands—zones previously associated with undervaluation. Similar scenarios appeared in the second quarters of 2022 and 2025, resulting in the price climbing above the realized value. Glassnode, a leading blockchain analytics platform, monitors wallet movements, transfer volumes, profitability ratios, MVRV, NUPL, exchange flows, and long-term holder behaviors for Ethereum, Bitcoin, and other networks.
At this stage, the realized price around $2,353 stands out as the key initial barrier. Should ETH establish itself above this level, the next objective could be the range near $2,640. Conversely, failure to clear this resistance could see the price retesting the lower deviation band close to $1,651.
In technical terms, ETH has broken above its ascending triangle formation before retreating toward its former resistance line. Such pullbacks are widely regarded as a normal process to confirm whether a trend breakout is sustainable. Should the upper trendline act as support, ETH could target the $2,625 region and higher in the near term.
Yet, if this retest fails, bullish momentum could falter, raising the possibility of ETH dropping back toward the $1,950 to $2,000 range. This dynamic underscores the dual importance of tracking both whale movements and Ether’s price response around the $2,353 threshold, which could determine the market’s short-term direction.
