The recent report from research and brokerage firm K33 indicates that pressure from long-term Bitcoin 
$91,967 holders may be reaching saturation, following a multi-year distribution process. Notably, the supply of BTC that has been dormant for more than two years since 2024 has been declining steadily, catalyzing around 1.6 million BTC (equivalent to approximately 138 billion dollars at current prices) to become active again. K33’s Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, suggests that this apparent scale points to a significant distribution rather than mere technical wallet movements.
The Significance of Declining Old Supply
According to Lunde, the reduction in BTC held in unspent outputs older than two years produces a strong signal that early investors are selling within the Blockchain. While the transformation of GBTC into a spot ETF format, wallet consolidation, and address upgrades for security explain some movements, K33’s report emphasizes that the total revival cannot be fully explained by these factors alone.
The report positions 2024 and 2025 as the second and third largest years in Bitcoin’s history for the long-term supply returning to circulation, surpassed only by 2017. Lunde notes that while the 2017 surge was fueled by altcoin transactions, ICO participation, and protocol incentives, the current cycle involves direct sales against a deeper liquidity pool.
Institutional Liquidity and Market Balance
K33 highlights significant transactions as evidence, such as the 80,000 BTC over-the-counter sale completed through Galaxy in July, the August exchange of 24,000 BTC for Ethereum 
$3,139, and another sale of approximately 11,000 BTC in the October-November period. It is suggested that similar large movements could play a decisive role in Bitcoin’s relatively weak performance by 2025.
K33 attributes the current wave to liquidity created by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and meaningful demand from corporate treasuries, making it easier for long-term investors to liquidate at six-figure prices. The report records that approximately $300 billion worth of BTC, aged one year or more, returned to circulation just in 2025. This circulation reduced investor concentration, establishing new reference prices for a significant share of the circulating supply.
Looking forward, K33 anticipates a weakening of selling pressure. Lunde recalls that about 20% of the total supply has become active again over the past two years and expects internal Blockchain selling pressure to approach saturation. K33 predicts that the decline in two-year-old supply will end, and the level at the end of 2026 will exceed the current approximately 12.16 million BTC.
The report also discusses the effects of portfolio rebalancing towards the end of the quarter. Lunde notes Bitcoin’s tendency to move in the opposite direction at the start of a new quarter compared to the previous one. Given Bitcoin’s significant underperformance in the 4th quarter relative to other asset classes, managers operating with stable target weights might generate buying flows at the end of December and early January. However, the report warns that supply revivals can typically peak near market tops. Nonetheless, ETFs, advisory platforms, and clearer regulatory frameworks are considered to potentially strengthen demand resilience once distribution pressure weakens.
According to CryptoAppsy data, Bitcoin was trading at $87,115, with a 0.22% drop over the last 24 hours while the article was prepared. Data reveals a 5.39% decline in the leading cryptocurrency over the past week.
