Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, discussed factors that may increase the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving XRP ETF applications. Asset managers such as Bitwise and Canary Capital have submitted applications to the SEC, aiming to offer institutional investors the opportunity to invest in XRP.
Factors Increasing the Chance of Success
In an interview on the Thinking Crypto podcast, Geraci noted that Donald Trump’s potential victory in the upcoming presidential elections could enhance the SEC’s chances of approving XRP ETFs. He emphasized that Trump’s commitment to creating a crypto-friendly environment in the U.S. would likely raise the probabilities of approval.
Geraci acknowledged that while Trump’s election might increase the chances for these ETFs to launch, it does not guarantee automatic approval. He highlighted the current administration’s negative stance toward cryptocurrencies.
Nate Geraci: “Trump’s win might increase the chances of launching ETFs, but it does not mean approval is guaranteed.”
Challenges to Approval
Geraci indicated that even if Trump wins, it would not be straightforward for the SEC to approve the XRP ETF. The lack of XRP futures contracts currently trading on the CME poses a significant issue. This absence is a notable disadvantage since the availability of CME futures markets has facilitated the approval of Bitcoin 
$78,526 and Ethereum 
$2,486 ETFs.
The SEC has approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs by connecting spot and futures markets in the Grayscale case. However, the absence of a futures market for XRP leaves its approval uncertain.
Nate Geraci: “I believe that futures markets are necessary due to how the SEC operates.”
Furthermore, Geraci mentioned that the SEC is likely to seek a surveillance-sharing agreement to prevent market manipulation before approving this fund. The lack of regulation for all exchanges trading XRP represents another significant challenge.
The ETF Store President argued that the best path for the entire industry would involve Congress creating a regulatory framework that clearly defines which crypto assets are securities. Meanwhile, Ripple 
$1 co-founder Chris Larsen has shown less concern for Trump and instead supports Kamala Harris due to her understanding of innovative economics, having also made a $1 million donation in XRP.
The SEC’s approval process for the XRP ETF remains complex, particularly given the existing regulatory environment and market conditions. Investors must closely monitor political shifts and potential developments in regulations.
