Pantera Capital believes that Bitcoin will reach approximately $150,000 during the next four-year halving cycle. The crypto asset manager doubled its BTC price predictions for 2024 and beyond in its latest “Blockchain Letter” report published on August 22.
Pantera Capital argues that the price performance of Bitcoin is largely tied to halving cycles and asserts that historical trends will continue with the next halving event expected to occur within the next twelve months. It states that BTC/USD tends to bottom and peak after approximately equal lengths of time following each block subsidy halving event, which reduces the amount of Bitcoin paid to miners per block by 50%.
“Bitcoin historically hit bottom 477 days before the halving, climbed towards the halving, and then exploded upwards,” wrote Pantera Capital, also explaining that previous halving cycles have had significant effects on Bitcoin’s price, with the reduction in new supply leading to price increases.
“The average length of post-halving rallies has been 480 days and has continued until the peak of the next bull cycle.”
According to Pantera, if history were to repeat itself, the Bitcoin price should have bottomed on December 30, 2022. Looking ahead, BTC/USD could be trading around $35,000 by the halving date in April 2024. However, the next 480 days hold not just a new all-time high, but much more.
“The 2016 halving reduced new Bitcoin supply by only a third. Interestingly, it had a price impact exactly one-third the size. The 2020 halving reduced new Bitcoin supply by 43% compared to the previous halving. It had a much larger impact on price, 23%.”
The next halving event is expected to take place on April 20, 2024. As most Bitcoins are already in circulation, each halving will result in an almost 50% reduction in new supply. If history repeats itself, the next halving will see Bitcoin rise to $35,000 before the event and $148,000 after.
According to Pantera Capital, Bitcoin is expected to reach its all-time high by July 2025, 480 days after the April 2024 halving.