A major sell-off may be imminent for a prominent altcoin that has found its place amongst the top 10 cryptocurrencies. Historical data indicate a clear downturn period. Could things unfold differently this time for the popular altcoin which experienced extreme sell-offs in previous halving periods? What do the current on-chain data tell us?
LTC Coin Halving Price
Litecoin price tested $100 again today with a 5% increase. However, past data shows that as the Litecoin halving date approaches, the price falls. The much-anticipated halving will occur on August 2nd (subject to miners’ performance). Despite this week’s 5% price increase, major stakeholders in the LTC ecosystem seem to be positioning for a downturn.
Historical data on-chain indicates that Litecoin initiated a significant downturn period weeks before the halvings in 2015 and 2019.
Prior to Litecoin’s first halving event in 2015, the LTC price peaked at $7.54 on July 10, then slid by 42% to $4.40 by the halving date on August 5. A similar pattern occurred during the 2019 cycle; the LTC price peaked at $142 on June 23, 2015, then fell by 53% to $93 by the halving date on August 5. The downward trend post-halving persisted for several months before Litecoin initiated another rally in January 2020.
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AAPLLTC Coin Commentary
After adding 300,000 coins in June, Litecoin miners began depleting their LTC reserves in July. IntoTheBlock’s Miner Reserves data shows that Litecoin miners offloaded 90,000 coins between July 5 and July 11.
Miner Reserves track real-time changes in the wallet balances of well-known miners and mining pools. When miners deplete their reserves, as seen above, it indicates a desire to profit at current prices. The above chart, despite the recent LTC price increase, shows miners positioning for a downturn ahead of the halving (block reward halving) event.
Historical price data from 2015 and 2019 shows that the LTC price fell twice immediately after each halving. Many miners, wanting to avoid post-halving sell-off madness, are trying to offload some of their reserves as the date approaches. If the expected happens, the price could make a new low between $50 and $80.
However, this time factors like the expected Spot Bitcoin ETF approval, the chance of LTC Coin not becoming a security, and the anticipated Fed interest cap announcement could prevent historical data from predicting the future.
