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According to the views of the multinational American investment bank TD Cowen, the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlighting a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the near future appears slim. The investment bank suggests that the wait could extend up to the 26-month period seen for spot bitcoin ETFs, but expects the approval to be postponed until after the upcoming elections.
SEC’s Stance on Ethereum ETFs: A Cautious Approach
The TD Cowen Washington Research Group, led by Jaret Seiberg, has expressed its expectations regarding the SEC‘s stance on spot Ethereum ETFs. The group predicts that the SEC will avoid immediate approval of ETFs for other cryptocurrencies.
They emphasize the SEC’s tendency to gather experience from Bitcoin ETFs before considering the approval of Ethereum or other cryptocurrency ETFs. While the timeline may not reflect the long wait for Bitcoin ETFs, TD Cowen expects a delay that likely extends beyond the upcoming elections.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval: A Significant Milestone
The recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC marked a significant turning point after more than a decade of rejections. The approval, which came 26 months after the green light for Bitcoin futures ETFs in October 2021, has led to speculation about the potential approval of spot Ethereum ETFs.
However, TD Cowen suggests a cautious stance, proposing that the SEC may adopt a slow approach in line with Chairman Gary Gensler’s strategy for regulating the crypto market.
Diverse Perspectives on Ethereum ETF Approval
While some market analysts express optimism about the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs, others, including JPMorgan, maintain their reservations. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou from JPMorgan suggests that for the SEC to greenlight spot Ethereum ETFs in May, Ethereum must be classified as a commodity rather than a security.
Applications for spot Ethereum ETFs by leading firms such as BlackRock and Fidelity indicate a growing interest in Ethereum as an investment vehicle.
Gensler’s Approach and Regulatory Outlook
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, while greenlighting spot Bitcoin ETFs, emphasized the limited options for the agency following a legal case against Grayscale Investments. According to TD Cowen, the recent approval does not accelerate the timeline for crypto market structure legislation and highlights the need for Congress to act to establish a regulatory framework.
As Gensler’s term extends to June 2026, TD Cowen suggests that Gensler’s deliberate approach may stem from a desire to wait for more court decisions and gather opinions from other jurisdictions before implementing a regulatory regime for crypto currencies.
