Renowned macroeconomics expert and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal has shared his insights on Bitcoin’s potential price increase in the coming weeks. According to Pal, there is a strong correlation between the global money supply (Global M2) and Bitcoin’s price, with current indicators suggesting a possible 28% rise from its existing level.
Bitcoin and Global Money Supply Relationship
Raoul Pal argues that Bitcoin’s price movements are largely driven by liquidity conditions. By analyzing the global money supply increase, he notes that this indicator had previously hinted at a price correction in April 2024. Pal’s assessment suggests that shifts in money supply can provide a roadmap for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Pal emphasizes the crucial influence of money supply expansion on Bitcoin 
$77,420 prices, highlighting the importance of focusing on liquidity dynamics rather than other factors. Despite various narratives circulating in social media and public discourse, Pal asserts that money supply remains the fundamental driving force.
Raoul Pal: “Price action is entirely driven by liquidity at present. The nearly $75,000 correction in April was forecasted months in advance. In my view, this indicator suggests Bitcoin could surpass $140,000 by July.”
Expected Divergence in Price Movements
Pal acknowledges that while the impact of global money supply on Bitcoin’s price is significant, price movements can occasionally diverge from this pattern. As the cycle progresses and investor interest intensifies, Bitcoin may outperform the global money supply forecasts.
Pal adds that during such pivotal moments, investor psychology can play a critical role, with rising risk appetite potentially leading to price spikes. Conversely, when fear dominates the market, prices could retract below the global money supply.
Raoul Pal: “Divergence might occur in later stages of the cycle. Bitcoin could perform above the global money supply with mass interest. But in a fear-driven market, it might lag again.”
Current Price and Market Outlook
As per the available information, Bitcoin was trading around $109,350 as of June 2025, with analysts highlighting the global macro indicators’ significant influence on prices. Despite the price’s potential to rise, its inherent volatile nature persists.
In the context of the cryptocurrency market, expert evaluations provide guidance for investors. However, due to prevalent uncertainty and volatility, a cautious approach remains prudent. Pal’s analyses stress the importance of monitoring liquidity indicators and being vigilant against sudden changes.
The relationship between global money supply and Bitcoin price is a significant indicator in long-term analyses. According to experts, such macroeconomic indicators can influence investor decisions during different periods. Practicing caution in risk management and consistently tracking market data can be advantageous strategies for investors.
Pal’s predictions focus on probabilities rather than absolute conclusions about future price movements. The market’s sensitivity to liquidity can lead to price volatility influenced by various macroeconomic indicators. Therefore, prospective investors are advised to keep abreast of current market dynamics and fundamental indicators.
