James Seyffart, an ETF research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could take a concrete step towards approving spot Bitcoin ETFs during the potential period from today until November 21. However, he also stated that there is a 90% chance that the SEC will approve several ETF applications before their final decision dates.
“They Won’t Be Too Favorable to the King”
Speaking on the Paul Barron Network YouTube channel, Seyffart said that instead of approving a single application to avoid giving an advantage to one of the 12 companies competing for the first spot ETF approval in the US, the SEC would prefer to approve multiple applications simultaneously. Seyffart stated, “We believe that the SEC will try to allow most of them to be launched on the same day. They won’t be too favorable to the king.”
He reiterated his previous prediction that there is a 75% chance of approving a spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of the year.
The closest application with a decision date in the evaluation stage is the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, with a final deadline of January 10, 2024. Seyffart emphasized that it is unlikely that the SEC will postpone its decision on ARK’s application until January 10, 2024, and then approve all other ETF applications in March 2024. Therefore, an important step such as approving pending applications in November or December of this year could be taken.
Expects ETF Providers to Turn to Exchanges Like Coinbase and Gemini
Seyffart also discussed the storage methods that spot Bitcoin ETF providers could use, predicting that companies would turn to exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini when it comes to asset custody. He noted that the opposite situation would result in the removal of supply from the chain, leading to an increase in the supply-demand ratio of BTC.
Furthermore, as it is known, the halving of the Bitcoin block reward is expected to occur in the second quarter of 2024, further reducing the BTC supply. Therefore, this situation, along with other macroeconomic events such as possible interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in the second quarter of 2024, opens the door for Bitcoin’s price to experience a wave of increase.
