Solana 
$106 (SOL) reached an all-time high on January 19 but has significantly lost value over the past month. Currently trading at $160, SOL is poised to release 11.2 million coins due to the FTX bankruptcy process. This release, valued at approximately $1.78 billion, is expected to increase selling pressure, as historical data shows that similar events have led to price declines.
Preparing for a Major Sell-off
The upcoming release of 11.2 million SOL coins on March 1 has raised concerns among investors. An increase in coin supply signals a potential price drop. Historically, large-scale unlocks have negatively impacted prices.
Santiment‘s data indicates that Solana’s funding rate has turned negative. This reflects a prevailing expectation among investors for further price declines. A positive funding rate typically indicates bullish market sentiment, while a negative rate suggests dominance of short sellers in the market.
If selling pressure escalates, Solana’s recovery may become increasingly difficult. Should buyers fail to generate sufficient demand, prices could further decline. The actions of large investors during this period will significantly influence price movements.
Potential for a Six-Month Low
Technical analysis suggests a heightened risk of further decline in Solana’s price. On daily charts, SOL has dipped below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a loss of current support and an opening for a new wave of decline.
There is also a possibility that the price may fall below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. If this occurs, Solana could decline to as low as $120. The downward trend indicated by the RSI suggests that bulls are losing strength, potentially sustaining the downward trend.
Historically, during 17 Solana unlock events, coin holders typically waited months before selling. However, the urgency to sell quickly to settle FTX debts may create additional selling pressure, leading to a double-digit price drop.
Conversely, if demand exceeds supply, prices might unexpectedly rise. In such a scenario, Solana could climb to $228.13. However, under current conditions, the likelihood of a decline appears greater.
