Solana, a blockchain platform known for its high-throughput capabilities, is facing renewed selling pressure as the price of its native token, SOL, trades near $100. Technical analysts are expressing concerns that a sustained breach of this level could trigger a further decline toward $80, representing a potential 20% loss.
Solana’s $100 Support Faces a Major Technical Test
SOL has lost about 14% in October, falling behind major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP over the same period. The recent dip below $100 has tested a key support zone that previously attracted significant buying interest.
Since August, analysts have been tracking a head-and-shoulders formation, a classic bearish chart pattern. This structure began with a left shoulder near $111, followed by a surge to $125 forming the head, and a right shoulder projected around $115. The so-called neckline, considered the point of confirmation, sits close to $100.
A daily close beneath the $100 neckline, particularly if accompanied by higher trading volumes, would reinforce the signal for a move toward $80. Market observers note that similar weakness was seen during earlier tests of the $100 level in September, when the $80–$85 region emerged as a key lower target.
Additional technical support is identified near $98, with further downside potential targeting $93-$96. Failure to hold these levels could bring SOL’s longer-term moving average around $88 into play, setting the stage for a possible test of $80 in the event of accelerated selling.
Technical analysis indicates that “a decisive daily close below $100, especially with heightened selling volume, could reinforce a move toward the $80 mark,” according to market perspectives shared over recent sessions.
Despite occasional recoveries above $100, analysts caution that these rebounds do not guarantee a repeat, especially under prevailing bearish momentum.
Solana ETFs Face Outflows Amid Improved Network Metrics
Institutional appetite for Solana is waning alongside the decline in price. Over the past week, US-listed Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows totaling approximately $17.3 million, marking the third straight week of redemptions. Preliminary data for October 26 also pointed to an additional $8.2 million withdrawn, with some funds still to report.
This reversal comes after a period of international ETF expansion, during which Solana gained broader access to new institutional investors while American ETFs began to experience withdrawals.
In contrast, Solana’s core network metrics have shown strength. The number of addresses holding tokenized equities has climbed to 1.5 million, a fivefold increase since August. However, not every address corresponds to a unique investor, and the growth in tokenized stock adoption does not directly reflect buying demand for SOL itself.
The network also recently implemented the Alpenglow upgrade, decreasing transaction finality to roughly 150 milliseconds. This advancement further positions Solana as a high-performance blockchain while failing to fully offset short-term market risks.
Mini dictionary: Alpenglow upgrade, a Solana network upgrade aiming to reduce block finality times and improve throughput, allowing transactions to be confirmed in about 150 milliseconds on average.
Short-Term Weakness Versus Long-Term Targets
The bearish outlook for SOL focuses on its struggle to maintain $100 support. Should SOL remain below $97–$98, the next technical levels include $93-$96 and $88, ultimately targeting $80 in case of persistent selling.
A recovery above $105-$110 could offer some relief for buyers, and a break above $115 would further weaken the head-and-shoulders pattern’s influence. An even stronger breakout past $125-$130 could shift sentiment away from the bearish scenario.
| Key Support/Resistance | Short-Term Outlook | Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| $100 (Neckline) | Critical support | Breach signals downside |
| $97–$98 | Immediate backup support | Failure risks further decline |
| $93–$96 | Secondary support | Next target if breakdown continues |
| $88 | Longer-term moving average | Potential target after further losses |
| $80 | Technical target | Main bearish goal |
| $105–$110 | Initial recovery zone | Could reduce bearish momentum |
| $115 | Major resistance | Break weakens bearish pattern |
| $125–$130 | Strong resistance | Break confirms bullish reversal |
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered, a major international bank, has maintained its year-end SOL price target of $250, showing the divide between current short-term technical risks and longer-term institutional optimism.
Recent analysis highlights the contrast between the $80 short-term risk for SOL and Standard Chartered’s much higher $250 long-term target for the token.
