Solana is currently trading at a crucial juncture, with key technical indicators signaling heightened risk. Although buyers have managed to maintain the price within the $65 to $71 range, momentum appears to be losing steam. Analysts warn that if this zone fails to hold, the next significant support level may be near $53.10, and a more pronounced downturn could bring the $40 area into play.
The significance of the $65 to $71 range
One clear focal point in Solana’s price action is the $65 to $71 range, which has become a defining region for the asset’s mid-term structure. According to on-chain data, over 60 million SOL tokens have changed hands in this band, making it the most robust support area on the chart due to the dense trading activity accumulated here.
URPD data, referring to UTXO Realized Price Distribution, indicates the prices at which coins were last transacted on-chain. These clusters represent areas where many investors share a similar cost basis, making them vital for identifying probable support or resistance. The current density in the $65 to $71 region reinforces its technical significance.
Mini glossary: URPD is a distribution model showing at which price levels coins last moved on-chain. Areas with intense investor cost concentration thus become critical support or resistance in technical analysis.
As long as SOL remains above this demand area, the overall bullish structure remains intact. However, a decisive break below $65 would weaken the technical outlook, with $53.10 emerging as the initial target if downward pressure intensifies.
If the $65 to $71 interval holds, it will continue to serve as the primary defense for buyers. Losing this zone, however, could push the price first to $53.10, and later towards lower on-chain cluster regions.
Lower support levels under watch
Roughly 7 million SOL have traded hands near the $53.10 level, representing the next notable accumulation area. Further below, about 5 million SOL are concentrated around $23.60, while a significant past trading volume of roughly 15 million SOL appears near $8.85. Although these levels sit well below the current price, they are historically important as prior demand zones.
In the short term, all eyes remain on the $65 to $71 band. Holding this support could fuel a bullish scenario, whereas its loss could open the door to a steeper correction with deeper retracements likely.
Trend break sparks concerns over $40 target
Solana recently dipped below its long-term upward trendline, now trading near $71. Technical charts show that the support guiding SOL since 2023 has been breached, and the price has yet to reclaim its former trajectory above this trendline.
Market analyst KALEO indicates that should the weakness persist, the next major downside target for SOL could be close to $40. According to this analysis, prices could test the upper $30s and $40 region before forming a stronger bottom.
The $40 zone also coincides with an earlier period of price consolidation from late 2023 to early 2024. Technical analysts often note that former resistance areas can become support if prices return to those levels in the future, adding weight to the $40 region as a key point to watch.
For now, SOL remains above these risk levels. However, after the recent breakdown of the trendline, a loss of momentum is evident. Regaining the broken trendline is vital for a stronger outlook. Otherwise, the $40 zone will continue to serve as the principal downside risk should the market weaken further.
