In May, Solana (SOL) saw a sharp decline in its futures market. Open interest plummeted from $2.75 billion to $1.9 billion, marking a significant 30 percent drop. Meanwhile, there was a clear contraction in leveraged positions and an overall cooling of risk appetite across the cryptocurrency market.
Market pressure and key supports under threat
SOL’s price slid toward the $80 range after broad market turbulence, which was triggered by escalating military tensions between the US and Iran. Technical analysis shows the $80–$95 bracket has historically served as solid support, but a breakdown at these levels poses the risk of a fall to this year’s low of $68.
According to Tradingview and Coinglass, the perpetual futures funding rate dropped to as low as -0.0088 percent. With prices under clear downward pressure, short-sellers continued to dominate the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) approached oversold territory, while the MACD indicator remained negative.
Technical assessments and analyst perspectives
Crypto market analyst Sjuul emphasized on social media that SOL’s outlook weakened after being rejected at $98. Sjuul identified $88 as a critical resistance, warning that sustained selling could drive the price down to $76. The analyst argued that for a new upward move, the price must firmly stay above $88.
“Since being rejected at $98, SOL’s downward momentum has only increased. Key levels are acting as resistance, and a break above $88 is essential for any upward movement,” explained Sjuul.
Mini glossary: Open interest refers to the total value of active and unsettled positions in futures contracts, reflecting the overall leverage in the market.
Another market observer, Cold Blooded Shiller, flagged SOL as the weakest among major assets by volume. If SOL loses the $80 level, he warned, it could face a lack of meaningful support below this point.
Spot market divergence stands out
Despite turbulence in derivatives, the spot market told a different story. Cumulative spot volume delta (CVD) climbed to $350 million since March, showing persistent accumulation by investors. Additionally, SOL spot ETFs saw net inflows of $113 million in May—the largest single-month performance so far in 2026.
These spot market inflows suggest investors remained cautious but committed to accumulation, even as futures positions shrank. Notably, total yearly futures volume fell sharply to -$13 billion, pointing to sustained selling pressure on derivatives platforms.
| Period | Futures Open Interest | Spot ETF Net Inflow |
|---|---|---|
| Start of May 2026 | $2.75 billion | — |
| End of May 2026 | $1.90 billion | $113 million |
Liquidation risk and critical thresholds ahead
Throughout the year, the $68 mark has served as a critical battleground, with around $800 million in open long futures positions clustered at this level. As prices near this range, the risk of large-scale liquidations grows, raising concerns about heightened volatility for crypto investors operating around these points.
Taken together, the wave of declines in Solana’s futures market and the steady accumulation and ETF inflows in spot trading reveal a split landscape. In the short term, this suggests choppy, unpredictable price action could continue for SOL.
