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Since we announced yesterday’s court decision as breaking news, the price of BTC has increased significantly. This is exciting. We extensively discussed why this decision is so important. The recent decision, which weakens the possibility of success in the appeal due to the three members finding Grayscale justified, also seems to excite experts.
When Will the Spot Bitcoin ETF Be Approved?
Following Grayscale’s legal victory against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) yesterday, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have updated their prediction on ETF approval. The analysts now believe that there is a 75% chance of the spot Bitcoin ETF being launched in 2023.
They also give a 95% probability for the spot Bitcoin ETF approval next year. The details of the recent decision clearly pave the way for future ETF approvals. Bloomberg experts recently stated the following:
“James Seyffart and I are increasing the likelihood of spot Bitcoin ETFs being launched this year to 75% (95% by the end of 2024). Balchunas, in a post on X (formerly known as Twitter), included Grayscale’s victory in our previous 65% probability, but the decision’s unanimity and determination were beyond expectations and left little room for the SEC.”
Crypto Expert Opinion
The deadlines for the SEC to approve, reject, or defer the applications of BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie are between September 1st and September 4th. Analysts expect a deferral announcement on the initial decision date.
“Considering the newness of the decision, we wouldn’t be surprised if the SEC decides to defer. However, in this case, I’m not sure that timelines will be so critical. We will probably wake up one day and hear that the SEC has given up and the launch is imminent.”
The SEC has 45 days to request a review of the decision. At the end of this period, the court will issue a final decision and additional directives. Nathan Geraci, President of The ETF Store, said after the decision that the SEC could approve the conversion of GBTC to an ETF, reject it for another reason, or force the closure of existing futures-based Bitcoin ETFs.
However, the following points favor investors:
- If the SEC cancels the approved futures ETFs to reject spot ETFs, it will face class-action lawsuits. Futures ETF investors and issuers will cause trouble for the institution due to financial losses.
- The SEC will have a hard time finding valid reasons to cancel previously approved futures Bitcoin ETFs.
- The court decision clearly rejected the SEC’s arguments about the difference between futures and spot ETFs. This makes it more difficult to appeal.
- Even if an appeal is made, the clear court decision may prevent the SEC from succeeding.
- The SEC may not want to oppose companies like BlackRock due to the ETFs it will eventually have to approve.
