Michael Saylor posted a Bitcoin purchase chart for Strategy to X on Sunday, July 26, drawing significant attention with the caption, “We’re gonna need another color.” This marked his fifth such post since the company’s most recent disclosed Bitcoin buy on June 22.
Saylor’s chart posts lose predictability
For several years, Saylor’s Sunday chart updates often signaled an imminent Bitcoin purchase, typically followed by an 8-K filing on Monday disclosing the acquisition. However, this pattern has weakened. For example, his June 28 post referencing more charts related instead to a revised capital framework, and a July 5 post immediately preceded Strategy’s largest-ever Bitcoin sale.
In late November, Saylor introduced the concept of “green dots” a day before Strategy added 130 BTC to a $1.44 billion reserve. On January 4, he shared a cryptic hint, asking, “Orange or Green?” which fueled further speculation about the company’s next move.
The latest post, which generated more than 11,000 likes and over 1,400 replies, was never fully explained by Saylor. The company confirmed that no Bitcoin transaction took place after the post.
Strategy’s market value, relative to its Bitcoin holdings and enterprise modified net asset value (mNAV), slipped below 1 on June 27, with MSTR trading at a discount to the value of its assets. Under current conditions, selling additional shares to buy more Bitcoin would reduce, rather than increase, Bitcoin per share.
Alongside these developments, Strategy’s preferred stock dividends under STRC were lifted to a 12% rate, requiring cash payments at a time when MSTR market price continues to lag.
Strategy has made 113 Bitcoin purchases totaling 843,775 BTC, acquired at an average price of $75,476 per coin for a total of $63.69 billion. At Bitcoin’s price of $65,283.96, the company’s holdings are valued around $55.1 billion, putting the position approximately $8.6 billion below cost.
Shift in financial strategy and reserve management
Following a capital framework update in late June, Strategy authorized up to $1 billion in digital credit securities buybacks, $1 billion in common stock buybacks, and a program for as much as $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales. On July 23, the company revised its mNAV calculation and announced that figures prior to this date are no longer comparable. MSTR shares ended last Friday at $91.67, down from $94.85 the week before.
Currently, Strategy is focused on raising and preserving cash rather than expanding its Bitcoin holdings. Between July 13 and July 19, the company sold 2,732,318 MSTR shares for net proceeds of $263.5 million, avoiding any Bitcoin purchases during this period. A recent SEC filing on July 20 set the new dollar reserve at $3.225 billion, covering approximately 1.8 years of future dividend commitments.
The company’s ability to raise additional capital remains robust, with authorization to sell up to $23.53 billion in extra common stock under its at-the-market programs. The hiatus in Bitcoin purchases stems from a strategic decision, not a lack of liquidity.
External warnings and new trends in diversification
The purchasing pause follows a recent warning from CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, who in June urged Strategy to halt Bitcoin buys and rebuild its cash buffer. According to Moreno, the company’s dividend obligations rose approximately fourfold in six months, with coverage shrinking from over seven years to just 14 months. He cautioned against buying Bitcoin as soon as funds become available, calling instead for a model-based approach to optimize acquisition timing.
The next key data will be published on Thursday, July 30, when Strategy reports its second-quarter results after the U.S. market closes.
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