SUI hovered around $0.68 on July 29, as investors monitored the impact of the network’s scheduled token unlock planned for August. Market sentiment remained cautious due to concerns that new supply could weigh on price performance in the coming weeks.
Upcoming token release and supply clarification
According to the official tokenomics schedule, the total circulating supply of SUI will reach at least 4.052 billion in July, increasing modestly to approximately 4.075 billion by the end of August. This change represents the introduction of 22.2 million additional SUI tokens, valued at about $15.1 million based on prevailing prices, or roughly 0.55% of the current circulating supply.
The release calendar also notes a 13.72 million SUI “cliff unlock” on August 1. This allocation forms part of the monthly supply growth and is not a single-day unlock, countering some market narratives that have overstated the token release. The actual supply increase remains more measured than previous speculation suggested, which may help limit excessive fears regarding sudden inflation.
Despite the additional tokens entering the market, the prevailing direction of SUI’s price is expected to be influenced more by investor sentiment and broader trading conditions than by the supply change alone.
Technical indicators point to bearish sentiment
On the technical front, SUI recently moved below the $0.77 trading range. It now sits under both the 50-period exponential moving average at $0.7289 and the 100-period EMA at $0.7569 on its 12-hour price chart, a sign that sellers retain control in the short term.
Recent trading data shows higher volumes during downturns compared to recoveries, highlighting ongoing negative sentiment. The relative strength index (RSI), which tracks momentum, stands at 33.49 and signals proximity to oversold territory. This may indicate that selling pressure could be close to exhaustion, although it does not guarantee a reversal of the current downtrend.
Recent analysis shows that SUI continues to trade below key moving averages, with volumes favoring the bearish trend while the RSI approaches oversold levels—suggesting that momentum remains with the sellers for now.
Support zones and potential recovery
The most immediate support for SUI is found near $0.676. Should the price hold above this range, there is the potential for a rebound to $0.70 and $0.71. Regaining momentum above the 50-period EMA would further strengthen the case for a possible recovery. Failure to maintain the critical support, however, could push SUI lower, with subsequent downside targets at $0.66 and $0.64.
SUI’s latest move downward ahead of the token unlock reveals both the ongoing market weakness and the heightened caution among investors. Many remain focused on technical barriers and macro sentiment as the primary drivers of price action.
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SUI’s immediate future hinges on its ability to hold key support levels and whether sentiment can shift, as traders watch closely for signs of stabilization amidst an upcoming supply increase.
