Bitcoin‘in (BTC) price prediction has not been very different from trying to find the answer in the pool of unknowns from past to present. Despite thousands of analyses and price predictions, some of them have been realized in a funny and scary way. So how do people and companies making price predictions do this? What was the BTC price movement based on in the latest price prediction by Matrixport?
Will Matrixport Predict Bitcoin Price?
Matrixport company’s year-end price prediction of $45,000 made on February 1st seems very likely to come true. Therefore, if we say that their price prediction this year is accurate with a small deviation, we would not be wrong. Due to their approximate approach, the prediction seems to have received positive feedback from market participants.
After the start of the day in Asian markets, Bitcoin traded near $44,000 in the early hours of Friday and if the upward trend continues, it will exceed the $45,000 level by the end of the month.
Markus Thielen, research director of Matrixport, who published a report in recent days, included the following words in this report:
The 2023 Bitcoin rally emerged in five stages. It started with a reaction to inflation trends, followed by a banking crisis response, an increase due to BlackRock’s ETF application, support from Federal Reserve policy changes, and finally, developments in SEC regulations on Bitcoin ETFs. Kite psychology and a mix of macro factors are the fundamental driving force. Aspects related to liquidity and market structure help to understand shorter-term movements.
Some cryptocurrency investors wonder why they focus so much on Bitcoin when there are so many cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, BTC did not mislead investors and rose. While the leading cryptocurrency saw a 164% increase from the beginning of the year, Ethereum drew attention with a 99% increase.
Thielen also included the following words in the continuation of the report:
In 2022, the bankruptcies of crypto lending and borrowing platforms and the distribution of banks related to crypto onramps in March 2023 were taken to another dimension. Individual investors had difficulty converting fiat to crypto, and therefore, this year’s crypto rally primarily focused on Bitcoin rather than higher-volatility altcoins that individual investors tend to prefer.
Companies’ ETF Predictions
Cryptocurrency investors are wondering how Bitcoin will react to a possible ETF approval in the near future. Considering that there are many cases of buy the rumor, sell the news in the cryptocurrency world, this situation is enough to make investors nervous. Nevertheless, the number of those expecting an increase is also significant.
A prediction market contract on Polymarket about the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF states that there is a 77% chance of the expected approval coming by January 15. Bloomberg, on the other hand, sees a probability of over 90% for the approval of an ETF in January. It seems that it will become apparent in the coming days whether the predictions of influential analysts in the market will be correct or if the SEC has a different opinion on the matter.