The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond reached 5 percent, its highest level since July 2025, marking only the second time in the past two decades that this threshold has been tested. Both macroeconomic observers and cryptocurrency market analysts emphasize that this surge in yields continues to put significant pressure on crypto assets.
Rising bond yields and BTC’s retreat
With long-term US Treasury yields rising, investors can now earn an almost risk-free annual return of 5 percent from the government. This is making riskier, non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin less attractive to many investors. According to CryptoAppsy data, the price of BTC dropped by 2 percent in the past 24 hours, falling to $75,670. Over the same period, the US Dollar Index pushed above 99, maintaining the previous day’s 0.5 percent gain. This dynamic has accelerated a shift in capital toward interest-bearing and safe-haven instruments.
Diana Pires, a senior executive at sFOX, stated that as long as bond yields remain stable and attractive, it will be challenging for risk assets to draw investment—this, she added, is particularly unfavorable for markets dependent on liquidity and momentum. Headquartered in San Francisco, sFOX provides crypto trading services to institutional investors and funds.
Fed decision and market reactions
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left its policy interest rate unchanged at the expected 3.5 to 3.75 percent range. However, a surprise came as three of the twelve voting members opposed language hinting at a possible rate cut, a move interpreted as a “hawkish” signal that reinforced expectations rates may stay elevated for an extended period.
Historically, rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar have pressured the value of crypto assets. Analysts warn that as financial conditions tighten, this trend could persist.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, an India-based crypto exchange, also highlighted the pressure on crypto valuations given rising bond yields and a robust dollar. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield—which sets the benchmark for broader borrowing costs—has continued its upward trajectory.
ING analysts characterized the dissent by three Fed members as a message to soon-to-be-appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, suggesting that any rate cut will face stronger scrutiny. No clear signal on rate changes or policy easing was included in the Fed’s latest statement.
The development is not limited to the United States. Global yields, including those in the United Kingdom, have also climbed, prompting a reassessment of risk across markets.
Commodities and the inflation outlook
Central bank decisions are not the sole driving force behind surging bond yields. In the early hours of the week, Brent crude oil prices soared to $125 per barrel—the highest since 2022. In tandem, notable increases at US fuel pumps have further lifted inflation expectations.
Many analysts believe the Fed has not yet seen sufficient signs of inflation returning to target levels. Without a clear prospect for imminent rate cuts, attention is shifting to government bonds and similar yield-generating assets as the current environment takes center stage. Meanwhile, prevailing macroeconomic headwinds are weighing on Bitcoin and the crypto market more broadly.
Although the market is broadly forecasting imminent rate cuts, the Fed is not sending that message. In this scenario, yield-seeking investors are gravitating to safe havens while crypto assets face mounting headwinds.
