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Into The Cryptoverse CEO and crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has sparked discussions in the crypto world with his analysis questioning whether Bitcoin (BTC) is following a historical market cycle trajectory or if it will reach its peak earlier than usual. With Bitcoin recently hitting an all-time high and only three weeks left until the block reward halving, Cowen emphasized the possibility that the peak of the cycle could come much earlier than in previous cycles, which typically reached their peak in the year following the halving.
When Will Bitcoin Reach Its First Peak?
In his Bitcoin analysis, Cowen pointed to the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cuts on the largest cryptocurrency. The analyst indicated that a retreat in Bitcoin’s price following any Fed rate cuts would be a signal consistent with previous cycles and could suggest that the cryptocurrency might potentially reach its peak in 2025.
The analyst also mentioned that if there is no significant correction or consolidation period after the Fed’s interest rate cuts, it could be a sign of reaching the peak much earlier than expected. Cowen compared the cycles of 2013 and 2021, noting that in the years following block reward halvings, the price reached its initial peak in April and then a major explosion peak in November.
Discussing the potential outcomes for his expectation, Cowen anticipates Bitcoin reaching its peak in April 2025, followed by consolidation and cooling down. However, if Bitcoin does not react to Fed interest rate cuts later in the year, the peak could be reached much earlier than expected, he reiterated.
Interest Rates Expected to Remain Steady in May
As is known, the Fed, at its last meeting on March 20th, chose to keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.5% and indicated that three interest rate cuts are on the table for this year. This announcement caused a sudden fluctuation in the markets, supporting the upward movement in Bitcoin and altcoins.
Now, participants in the crypto market, along with traditional markets, are awaiting the next Fed interest rate decision. The next Fed interest rate meeting is scheduled for May, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the majority of observers, approximately 95.8%, do not expect any change in interest rates.
