Historical data suggested a bull run for 2025 as Bitcoin reached new all-time highs, despite being unlike 2021. For many altcoins, the market was reminiscent of a bear period, with external factors weighing heavily. Now, historical patterns propose that 2026 might replay 2022’s dynamics. But is this really going to happen?
2026 Cryptocurrency Winter
10x Research addressed the prevalent narrative among cryptocurrency enthusiasts about 2026 being a collapse year. With Bitcoin’s critical region at $101,586 reclaimed, growth should persist. However, bear markets have settled at much lower closures than those highlighted in the chart below. Although prices hover beneath a critical zone, 10x Research believes 2026 will not be the “challenging year” many fear.
“By the end of October, we noted the start of a Bitcoin bear market before sentiments altered. Following a 20% decline, the bear market notion became mainstream. The consensus now is this year is the “hard year” of the cycle, and instead of enduring it, it should be avoided.
However, markets seldom move when expectations are clear and widely shared. The problem isn’t with the price but the growing chasm between market beliefs and the silent maneuvers of market structure behind the scenes.”
The evolving structure of cryptocurrencies has rendered early signals ineffective. In the second quarter of 2025, Ki Young Ju, who was monitoring numerous on-chain metrics and anticipated the beginning of bear markets, later admitted his mistake.
Cryptocurrency Surge
ETF entries on Friday suggest investors ready for a rally still exist. Although gold and silver marked spectacular rallies last year, liquidity may soon return to cryptocurrencies, especially in a setting enriched by the Fed’s interest rate cuts. With Bitcoin’s price above $80,000, narratives of a bear market seem challenged, and those projecting a plunge to $56,000 find themselves as disappointed as those anticipating growth.
Key events will shape 2026, from the Fed’s pace of interest rate reduction to the potential inception of new FUD by Supreme Court decisions on tariff wars, and whether MNV collapses of crypto reserves firms might trigger massive sell-offs. Both bullish and bearish believers face uncertainty.
