Despite a decline today, Bitcoin 
$77,196 has recovered 50% of its losses before the FOMC meeting. As volatility typically increases at the end of the month, this downtrend may persist. However, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, with historical data indicating potential gains in February. We are examining whether Bitcoin can reach levels around $123,000.
Can Bitcoin Price Hit $123,000?
Since mid-November 2024, Bitcoin’s price has been moving sideways. During this period, BTC has attempted multiple breakouts but has not demonstrated sufficient strength. Consequently, the ongoing consolidation has led to several new highs in the last 78 days, with the latest peak recorded at $110,000 on January 20.
Four Conditions That Could Propel BTC to $123,000
For Bitcoin to break the $123,000 barrier or higher, four significant developments need to occur.
The price must surpass the resistance level of $105,500. This level has been a point of rejection for BTC, halting the rally after the FOMC meeting.
The second condition involves the disparity between retail and institutional investors. According to Santiment data, wallets holding 0-10 BTC owned by retail investors are shrinking, while those containing 100-1000 BTC are accumulating. Typically, retail investors are more sensitive to short-term fluctuations, which could lead to capitulation before reaching new peaks. Whale accumulations suggest that the bullish trend is not over, and a new all-time high (ATH) is possible.
The third condition is a decrease in whale transactions, specifically a drop in transfers valued at $100,000. An increase in this metric usually supports price increases, while a decrease indicates that whales may be losing interest, potentially leading to consolidation or a downward phase. If this trend reverses, Bitcoin is more likely to reach ATH levels.
The fourth condition relates to historical trends. The average monthly return in January is around 4%, while February’s average return hovers around 15.66%. Hence, the probability of a new ATH in February and potentially reaching $123,000 is high.
Two of the four stated conditions must be met: BTC surpassing the $105,000 barrier and an increase in whale transactions above $100,000. If all four conditions are satisfied, it is possible for Bitcoin’s price to set a new all-time high at $123,000.
Key Levels to Monitor as BTC Prices Decline
As January draws to a close, investors can expect high volatility. Following a peak of $106,450 on Thursday, Bitcoin’s price fell by 2.04%. Investors should anticipate the continuation of this short-term downward trend around the New York opening.
In this context, some key demand levels to watch are $101,500, $100,000, $98,200, and $96,800.
