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With the data that came today, all critical figures have been collected before the Fed meeting. So what’s next? At the time of writing, BTC is finding buyers at $26,600. Altcoins have not been able to recover as expected, and investors are struggling to believe in the rise. For a real rally in altcoins, the king cryptocurrency will need to reclaim important areas.
Bitcoin and Macro Data
Bitcoin experienced a remarkable recovery despite the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The US macro policy will need to remain more restrictive to control inflation. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the Federal Reserve should skip the interest rate hike at the September 20 meeting. This is given a 97 percent probability. The disconnect between data and market sensitivity became even more interesting with the European Central Bank’s 25bp interest rate hike. The dollar index rose above 105.
The Kobeissi Letter wrote the following about the current situation;
“This is the 10th consecutive interest rate hike, raising interest rates to the highest level of 4.5 percent since 2001. The ECB has also lowered all growth forecasts until 2025. The fight against inflation is not over yet.”
Kobeissi added that despite the signal from the ECB that the latest hike could be the last in the current cycle, he is still 30 percent sure that futures markets will continue.
“Central banks around the world are preparing for a LONG pause with high interest rates.”
Bitcoin Aims for $27,000
Popular cryptocurrency analyst Jelle wrote in a section of today’s analysis that he would target $27,600 in closing prices above $26,400. This means that the BTC price could close above $27,000 in the coming hours.
The price has been holding this critical threshold for the past few hours. Another analyst, Rekt Capital, predicted a continuation of the fractal of the chart from 2021, which was Bitcoin’s all-time high.
“Bitcoin bounced from around $26,000. And as long as this region remains as support, the A-B phase of the fractal can stay in play. However, we have seen this fractal occur in 2019 and 2021 as well. A relief rally followed by rejection could reveal a weakening support at $26,000.”
