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Now that the most exciting week of 2024 is behind us, investors thought a bit of selling wouldn’t be a problem. Eventually, the BTC price fell to $41,700 and at the time of writing stands at $42,400. So what do the latest data tell us? Will there be another rise in crypto currencies?
Will Bitcoin Climb?
We saw serious fluctuations in the spot price as a result of demand/sales in futures, which will continue in the coming period. As for today, the long-short ratio in Binance Futures has reached the highest level in recent months. This reflects the sentiment of investors waiting in futures that a local bottom has been set after the recent drop. In other words, they are expecting a rise.
According to The Block’s Data Dashboard, the ratio, which has been falling since the approval of multiple spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, has risen much more rapidly to 2.86. In a situation where an equal number of investors are in long/short positions, this is pegged at 1. Therefore, a 2.86 ratio very clearly reflects a strong expectation of a rise.
Cryptocurrencies Could Rise
The metric that has reached the highest level in recent months had previously dropped to the 0.86 region, and the current recovery is promising. Coinglass data also confirms this, indicating that dominant long positions are pointing to a rise.
Current position data on Coinglass shows that 42% of investors have adopted a bullish stance, with only 22% taking a bearish position. The remaining percentage consists of neutral positions. The problem is that in such situations, we can see prices moving in the exact opposite direction of expectations due to being in a crowded place.
We have repeatedly seen prices drop speculatively “for the hunt” when liquidation data accumulates at ranges attractive to market makers and large investors. Strong spot demand is also needed to prevent this.
If ETFs see strong volume after the US stock markets open tomorrow, and if big news starts coming in regarding ETF integrations and support, this could provide the spot support. On the other hand, although there is no major development on the macro front this week, a Fed meeting will be held at the end of the month after bad data comes in.
For now, the macro front is negative, crypto is focused on profit-taking, and there is a dominant bullish trend in futures, but BTC is not rising.
