The cryptocurrency markets are focused on the upcoming inflation data, and as a result, the price of Bitcoin has started to decline again. However, the price, which is trying to protect the critical threshold of $29,500, presents an uncertain outlook for the next few hours. We have seen that macro data, even the Fed’s decision, has had no significant impact on prices in the past month. Will today be an exception?
The recovery of Bitcoin from $28,701 on August 7 reflected the demand from the support level. While investors were expecting the beginning of a new trend, the price continued to stay in a narrow range. A recent report by ARK Invest stated that “Bitcoin’s volatility” has reached the lowest levels in six months. This indicates that a strong movement may start soon.
If history repeats itself, August and September may continue to be boring days despite the decrease in volatility, as the average price movements were 0.73% and -5% respectively. What determines the direction of Bitcoin is whether $29,700 will be permanently surpassed or not. The possibility of a decline may have already been priced in the past 24 hours, as the inflation data is expected to increase compared to the previous month.
Although the direction of the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of new open positions is unknown, we may see a surprising move.
Although the short term is uncertain, the long term continues to look attractive. Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, believes that with the approval of ETFs in the coming months, the market will reach the price catalyst it needs. Technically, the strong relief rally from Bitcoin’s $28,861 support shows that the bulls have not given up yet and continue to see the dips as a buying opportunity. Many experts agree that the following support and resistance levels will determine the future of the price.
The 20-day exponential moving average, which was $29,455 on August 8, has been regained. The bulls need clear closings above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $29,951. If they can achieve this, the price can quickly recover to the range between $31,800 and $32,400.
In the event of a downward direction, the selling pressure may continue until $28,500. This situation will indicate that the price may linger in the boring range between $28,500 and $30,500 for a long time. The rest of the cryptocurrencies will likely follow Bitcoin’s movement.