ChartNerd, a widely-followed cryptocurrency analyst on X, has captured market attention after sharing a new technical outlook for XRP. The analysis focuses on the weekly Supertrend indicator, which has switched to a bullish stance for the cryptocurrency. This shift is significant, with many traders recalling its historical relevance to major price movements.
Historical parallels with the 2022 rally
Reviewing past performance, ChartNerd pointed to 2022 when XRP signaled a bullish turn after reaching its cycle low. At that time, the weekly Supertrend indicator flashed green, triggering a notable rally. XRP subsequently surged 90% up to its 50-week exponential moving average (50 WEMA), a technical level often watched by traders for trend direction. The 50 WEMA became a strong barrier, halting the advance and marking a local top. Following this resistance, XRP underwent a steep correction of 45%, ultimately creating a double bottom formation at the June lows.
The pattern from 2022 revealed that when the Supertrend indicator flipped bullish, XRP rallied sharply into the 50 WEMA, but then saw a substantial pullback as resistance held.
Mini dictionary: Supertrend indicator — A trend-following technical tool that signals bullish or bearish conditions based on price and volatility, often used to identify entry and exit points in trading.
Current setup: Testing resistance again
ChartNerd identified the same sequence potentially unfolding in recent weeks. On August 17, XRP’s weekly Supertrend indicator once again flipped bullish. Since then, XRP managed to break out toward its 50 WEMA, which currently lies at $1.52. The price has begun to compress near this level, echoing the setup from 2022.
The analyst believes that if history is any guide, traders who missed buying near $1.00 may get another chance if the 50 WEMA resists further gains. The significance of this technical resistance is heightened by its past performance as a barrier to price growth. Should XRP be rejected there again, a notable price retracement could unfold, providing new entry opportunities for sidelined market participants.
| Year | Supertrend Signal | Price Rally (%) | 50 WEMA Level | Correction (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Bullish | 90% | ~$1.25 | 45% |
| 2025 | Bullish | TBD (testing $1.52) | $1.52 | Potential |
“If history is to repeat, those who missed the $1.00 lows may still get another opportunity to scoop cheaper prices if we continue to reject the 50,” ChartNerd shared.
Analyst’s positioning and advice
Despite his awareness of another possible correction, ChartNerd stated that he has already established his position in XRP and plans to continue dollar-cost averaging. He emphasized that the analysis is rooted in historical patterns and is not a bearish call. Instead, it serves as guidance for traders looking to capitalize if a deeper retrace occurs by the end of the year.
He further remarked that market participants should remain flexible and view a potential dip as an opportunity, not a setback. For those who may have missed earlier rallies, the possibility of a correction could bring favorable conditions.
The critical level: $1.52
The 50 WEMA, currently at $1.52, is a focal point for traders analyzing XRP’s next move. After a recent run-up exceeding 50%, XRP quickly approached this zone. On reaching $1.39 at the time of writing, XRP’s price response to the resistance will be closely observed. A break above could signal a new upward phase, while another rejection might trigger a repeat of the historical pattern.
Technical analysts and traders are expected to monitor XRP’s performance at $1.52 closely over the coming weeks, as the outcome at this critical resistance will set the tone for short-term market sentiment.
