Analyst warns $XRP may see explosive breakout followed by 95% crash

Crypto market analyst JD (@jaydee_757) has highlighted a repeating pattern in the XRP/BTC trading pair, suggesting that XRP has consistently followed cycles of rapid price surges followed by extended declines. JD presented a monthly chart covering price movements from 2013 to 2029, showing how XRP’s price relative to Bitcoin has evolved over the years on the Binance exchange.

The cycle of sharp pumps and deep corrections

According to the chart shared by JD, XRP/BTC experienced significant upward moves in 2014, 2017, and 2018. After each rapid climb, the pair underwent steep corrections, with the 2018 peak reaching a range between 0.00017500 BTC and 0.00018000 BTC. Following that peak, XRP/BTC continued to fall until 2020, briefly rebounded, and then declined again into 2022 and 2024.

The downturn in 2024 was interrupted by a surge exceeding 500%, which placed XRP near the upper boundary of a long-standing falling wedge pattern. This technical structure, defined by a series of lower highs and a stable base, has emerged over more than a decade, according to JD’s analysis.

The pattern shows sharp upswings that attract buyers, but each time, strong corrections follow. JD argues this cycle has disadvantaged many investors while benefiting a select few.

Throughout these periods, the same cycle has persisted: after compressing within the wedge, XRP/BTC surges, then resets with a steep correction. The recurring nature of these movements has led JD to describe XRP as exhibiting a classic pump-and-dump profile on its long-term chart.

XRP/BTC at a critical level

Currently, the XRP/BTC pair trades around 0.00001816 BTC, positioning it close to the upper boundary of the wedge. This level remains well below its all-time high but represents a possible inflection point should a breakout occur. JD maintains that XRP/BTC is now displaying signals consistent with the early phase of a major breakout, which could be followed by a considerable price rally.

He speculates that if the trading pair can decisively break above this technical resistance, the move may lead to a rapid climb to what he describes as “moonboy levels,” or highly elevated valuations, before an eventual reversal.

Mini dictionary: Falling wedge — This is a technical chart pattern where the price forms a series of lower highs and a relatively stable or slightly declining base, typically indicating a reduction in downward momentum that may lead to an upward breakout if confirmed by trading volume and price action.

Analyst anticipates historic drop after surge

Despite the potential for a substantial rally, JD’s projection suggests caution. His chart includes a label for an anticipated “historical crash,” with a predicted decline of up to 95% that could extend into 2029. JD emphasizes that while some investors might profit significantly during these rallies, the broad majority may end up worse off if they fail to exit before any major correction unfolds.

JD asserts that during each cycle, most participants are left “poorer while some become millionaires,” warning that the next explosive move may be followed by a pronounced collapse in value.

This cyclical pattern, as presented in JD’s analysis, points to considerable risk for those holding XRP for extended periods, especially if they do not capitalize on price peaks. The analysis suggests the need for vigilance when trading volatile assets exposed to pronounced historical boom and bust cycles.