XRP, the native token of Ripple, started October 2026 following three consecutive months of gains, drawing close attention from market analysts to an emerging pattern that could impact the token’s trajectory this month.
Analyst reviews XRP’s October performance history
Cryptocurrency analyst Egrag Crypto examined XRP’s track record for the month of October, analyzing 13 years of historical data from 2013 to 2025. Of those 13 Octobers, XRP ended five months with price increases and eight months with declines.
Based on these results, XRP’s rate of positive October closes stands at 38.5%, while negative closes account for 61.5%. The average return for the token during October was calculated at -5.5%, and the median return at -3.2%.
XRP’s October history shows it has posted losses in 8 out of 13 years, with an average monthly return of -5.5%.
Egrag Crypto noted that these numbers put a spotlight on the historically challenging nature of October for XRP, suggesting that seasonality may influence its market performance.
| Period (October) | Gains | Losses | Avg. Return | Median Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-2025 (13 years) | 5 (38.5%) | 8 (61.5%) | -5.5% | -3.2% |
Green September historically followed by October declines
Further analysis focused on XRP’s October performance after a positive September. Egrag Crypto identified seven such instances during the 13-year span, where XRP entered October after closing September with a gain.
In these cases, XRP dropped in October in six out of seven years, equating to a 85.7% probability of a decline, while only once did the token record an October gain after a green September, or 14.3%.
Historical data shows that XRP tends to fall in October when September ends positively, with declines recorded in 6 out of 7 such years.
XRP’s current run: Three consecutive monthly gains
For 2026, Egrag Crypto reported that XRP gained 2.1% in July, 30.0% in August, and 8.0% in September. These back-to-back positive months leading into October mark a sequence not seen before in XRP’s history, according to the analyst.
Egrag Crypto pointed out that this unique streak sets the current year apart from previous October scenarios, where performance after three such consecutive gains had not been recorded in the data monitored.
The situation creates a conflict between historical October trends, which typically suggest declines for XRP, and the fresh momentum brought by multiple successive monthly increases.
Egrag Crypto questioned whether past seasonal patterns would prevail this time, or if XRP could buck the trend amid its current upward momentum.
Mini dictionary: Egrag Crypto — a cryptocurrency market analyst known for combining statistical data with technical analysis, often sharing detailed insights into historical price patterns and market structure for digital assets such as XRP.
Market participants question seasonality’s value
While the analysis highlights the historic pressure on XRP during October, not all observers agree with the significance of these statistical patterns. One social media commenter, Xeowolf, expressed skepticism about the reliability of past trends as a predictor of future price action.
According to Xeowolf, the cryptocurrency market has repeatedly moved against prior historical patterns in recent years, suggesting that past seasonal movements may not dictate future performance. This perspective introduces further uncertainty as to whether XRP will follow its historic October trajectory or set a new precedent in 2026.
